Number 15

In Big Sky Bonus under the 4/31 + 1/17 · Nov 2016 – Oct 2024 rules — 2,889 draws, 4 from 1–31 (an earlier era).

399times drawn · chance expected 373 +1.46σ

5draws waiting · a wait this long: 58% for any number

7.2average wait between appearances · chance says 7.8

39longest completed wait · 88% chance of one at least that long

15 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 399 times in 2,889 draws against 372.8 expected, +1.46σ. Each draw is independent: after 5 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 15, draw by draw

Drawn 399 times in 2,889 draws · average wait 7.2 draws · longest completed wait 39 · waiting 5 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 15 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest41 · chance 55.0
2nd smallest145 · chance 165.1
3rd smallest179 · chance 143.1
4th smallest34 · chance 35.8

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 39.9 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

14 25 22 2 3 10

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 30 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 15 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 31. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 15 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2024-10-10	4	2nd	1 15 21 29
2024-10-06	1	3rd	2 3 15 21
2024-10-05	10	3rd	1 11 15 19
2024-09-25	7	2nd	6 15 22 24

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 15 is drawn with probability 4/31 tonight whatever it did last week.

2024-04-18	4	2nd	6 15 20 29
2024-04-14	3	2nd	8 15 21 25
2024-04-11	2	2nd	9 15 17 30
2024-04-09	5	2nd	1 15 19 23
2024-04-04	6	3rd	2 6 15 23
2024-03-29	3	2nd	2 15 18 30
2024-03-26	2	2nd	1 15 18 19
2024-03-24	1	2nd	4 15 21 27
2024-03-23	8	2nd	2 15 17 29
2024-03-15	8	4th	1 12 14 15
2024-03-07	13	2nd	4 15 25 28
2024-02-23	6	3rd	5 8 15 25
2024-02-17	1	2nd	13 15 22 29
2024-02-16	7	2nd	11 15 18 21
2024-02-09	8	2nd	5 15 23 25
2024-02-01	13	2nd	7 15 17 23
2024-01-19	9	2nd	9 15 17 24
2024-01-10	6	1st	15 20 27 30
2024-01-04	1	2nd	14 15 19 27
2024-01-03	22	3rd	1 2 15 31
2023-12-12	13	1st	15 17 19 28
2023-11-29	7	2nd	14 15 19 23
2023-11-22	3	3rd	8 11 15 16
2023-11-19	7	3rd	1 4 15 18
2023-11-12	4	3rd	13 14 15 22
2023-11-08	1	3rd	3 9 15 17
2023-11-07	12	3rd	8 14 15 20
2023-10-26	7	1st	15 24 25 31
2023-10-19	39	3rd	6 9 15 20
2023-09-10	3	1st	15 17 22 24
2023-09-07	29	1st	15 22 28 31
2023-08-09	10	2nd	6 15 23 26
2023-07-30	13	3rd	7 13 15 31
2023-07-17	2	3rd	4 12 15 21
2023-07-15	4	2nd	4 15 24 31
2023-07-11	10	2nd	2 15 16 19
2023-07-01	10	2nd	11 15 20 31
2023-06-21	5	1st	15 17 18 25
2023-06-16	10	3rd	4 11 15 27
2023-06-06	1	3rd	3 5 15 30
2023-06-05	3	4th	8 9 13 15
2023-06-02	5	3rd	2 13 15 30
2023-05-28	3	1st	15 17 26 31
2023-05-25	4	3rd	10 11 15 17
2023-05-21	3	3rd	8 12 15 17
2023-05-18	15	3rd	8 12 15 19
2023-05-03	17	3rd	1 2 15 25
2023-04-16	1	3rd	6 10 15 18
2023-04-15	4	1st	15 20 21 31
2023-04-11	18	2nd	7 15 24 25
2023-03-24	5	3rd	4 11 15 31
2023-03-19	10	3rd	1 12 15 18
2023-03-09	13	2nd	7 15 17 23
2023-02-24	4	2nd	7 15 19 22
2023-02-20	12	2nd	4 15 25 31
2023-02-08	10	3rd	6 12 15 22
2023-01-29	8	3rd	8 10 15 21
2023-01-21	2	2nd	3 15 16 26
2023-01-19	25	2nd	11 15 18 22
2022-12-25	1	2nd	8 15 27 31
2022-12-24	2	2nd	8 15 20 29
2022-12-22	10	2nd	14 15 26 30
2022-12-12	7	3rd	2 3 15 28
2022-12-05	9	3rd	2 9 15 27
2022-11-26	2	3rd	3 13 15 16
2022-11-24	4	4th	2 3 6 15
2022-11-20	1	2nd	2 15 16 21
2022-11-19	1	3rd	12 14 15 31
2022-11-18	1	3rd	3 4 15 29
2022-11-17	9	2nd	13 15 19 24
2022-11-08	5	1st	15 16 19 30
2022-11-03	2	2nd	1 15 21 30
2022-11-01	4	2nd	2 15 23 26
2022-10-28	1	3rd	7 8 15 20
2022-10-27	10	3rd	2 14 15 29
2022-10-17	3	3rd	3 10 15 29
2022-10-14	31	1st	15 18 23 26
2022-09-13	1	2nd	4 15 20 27
2022-09-12	1	1st	15 25 26 27
2022-09-11	5	3rd	12 13 15 25
2022-09-06	4	3rd	7 13 15 20
2022-09-02	10	3rd	6 9 15 20
2022-08-23	11	2nd	11 15 23 26
2022-08-12	1	2nd	6 15 16 21
2022-08-11	18	2nd	9 15 28 29
2022-07-24	21	3rd	11 14 15 17
2022-07-03	18	2nd	12 15 18 22
2022-06-15	6	3rd	5 14 15 23
2022-06-09	9	2nd	11 15 22 28
2022-05-31	9	1st	15 17 18 30
2022-05-22	1	1st	15 17 18 28
2022-05-21	11	3rd	4 9 15 24
2022-05-10	4	4th	2 3 11 15
2022-05-06	2	3rd	2 3 15 27
2022-05-04	21	2nd	12 15 18 26
2022-04-13	9	3rd	1 7 15 25
2022-04-04	5	3rd	7 14 15 20
2022-03-30	9	2nd	1 15 22 29
2022-03-21	12	3rd	2 4 15 27
2022-03-09	15	3rd	2 8 15 16
2022-02-22	3	4th	4 12 14 15
2022-02-19	5	3rd	6 9 15 25
2022-02-14	4	4th	2 6 14 15
2022-02-10	10	3rd	1 7 15 21
2022-01-31	3	2nd	8 15 21 31
2022-01-28	9	3rd	4 8 15 20
2022-01-19	19	3rd	7 9 15 27
2021-12-31	15	3rd	5 8 15 24
2021-12-16	1	3rd	4 10 15 19
2021-12-15	2	3rd	3 13 15 18
2021-12-13	6	2nd	7 15 19 25
2021-12-07	8	3rd	8 9 15 18
2021-11-29	6	2nd	13 15 20 29
2021-11-23	3	2nd	11 15 25 30
2021-11-20	5	3rd	4 14 15 20
2021-11-15	16	2nd	6 15 24 28
2021-10-30	21	3rd	1 11 15 28
2021-10-09	3	3rd	5 9 15 20
2021-10-06	34	3rd	2 8 15 25
2021-09-02	1	2nd	1 15 22 26
2021-09-01	4	1st	15 20 22 24
2021-08-28	3	2nd	7 15 20 24
2021-08-25	11	2nd	10 15 19 31
2021-08-14	1	3rd	7 10 15 21
2021-08-13	1	3rd	10 12 15 26
2021-08-12	3	2nd	5 15 22 24
2021-08-09	6	2nd	3 15 19 26
2021-08-03	1	2nd	6 15 24 31
2021-08-02	7	2nd	13 15 22 26
2021-07-26	2	3rd	2 9 15 26
2021-07-24	1	2nd	12 15 17 23
2021-07-23	17	1st	15 18 22 23
2021-07-06	1	3rd	1 10 15 24
2021-07-05	7	3rd	9 10 15 17
2021-06-28	14	4th	1 6 7 15
2021-06-14	1	3rd	1 4 15 24
2021-06-13	8	3rd	4 6 15 24
2021-06-05	5	1st	15 19 23 31
2021-05-31	30	4th	9 12 14 15
2021-05-01	1	2nd	14 15 17 21
2021-04-30	35	3rd	3 6 15 22
2021-03-26	11	4th	1 2 8 15
2021-03-15	5	3rd	5 8 15 25
2021-03-10	18	2nd	8 15 24 27
2021-02-20	12	4th	3 4 14 15
2021-02-08	2	2nd	2 15 21 28
2021-02-06	4	3rd	2 3 15 21
2021-02-02	5	2nd	10 15 22 23
2021-01-28	14	3rd	6 7 15 21
2021-01-14	4	3rd	6 8 15 22
2021-01-10	1	2nd	6 15 19 20
2021-01-09	25	3rd	7 10 15 17
2020-12-15	3	3rd	10 12 15 19
2020-12-12	2	4th	4 5 11 15
2020-12-10	2	1st	15 22 24 27
2020-12-08	7	3rd	3 14 15 23
2020-12-01	7	2nd	11 15 17 19
2020-11-24	2	2nd	8 15 26 27
2020-11-22	9	2nd	1 15 23 26
2020-11-13	2	1st	15 20 26 27
2020-11-11	5	3rd	11 14 15 16
2020-11-06	5	4th	7 10 14 15
2020-11-01	19	3rd	5 10 15 21
2020-10-13	2	3rd	5 13 15 16
2020-10-11	6	3rd	3 7 15 16
2020-10-05	9	1st	15 21 23 26
2020-09-26	1	1st	15 19 25 26
2020-09-25	2	3rd	5 12 15 27
2020-09-23	3	1st	15 18 27 28
2020-09-20	1	3rd	13 14 15 26
2020-09-19	8	1st	15 20 21 27
2020-09-11	3	3rd	1 12 15 26
2020-09-08	4	1st	15 24 26 28
2020-09-04	3	2nd	12 15 16 24
2020-09-01	1	1st	15 22 25 28
2020-08-31	19	2nd	1 15 19 28
2020-08-12	18	3rd	1 12 15 24
2020-07-25	11	2nd	8 15 18 24
2020-07-14	15	3rd	5 7 15 27
2020-06-29	3	2nd	7 15 20 21
2020-06-26	9	3rd	2 12 15 25
2020-06-17	7	2nd	2 15 16 26
2020-06-10	4	2nd	12 15 16 25
2020-06-06	2	1st	15 16 25 26
2020-06-04	12	3rd	7 10 15 28
2020-05-23	39	2nd	6 15 22 25
2020-04-14	4	1st	15 17 24 25
2020-04-10	8	1st	15 19 24 27
2020-04-02	10	2nd	9 15 22 27
2020-03-23	1	2nd	5 15 19 27
2020-03-22	8	3rd	1 2 15 18
2020-03-14	15	2nd	14 15 27 28
2020-02-28	10	2nd	5 15 21 22
2020-02-18	6	2nd	7 15 16 28
2020-02-12	6	3rd	10 13 15 16
2020-02-06	6	3rd	4 7 15 26
2020-01-31	2	3rd	5 6 15 27
2020-01-29	2	3rd	5 11 15 28
2020-01-27	21	3rd	2 3 15 25
2020-01-06	2	4th	3 10 13 15
2020-01-04	8	2nd	2 15 23 25
2019-12-27	1	3rd	3 5 15 18
2019-12-26	4	2nd	9 15 18 19
2019-12-22	7	4th	3 9 11 15
2019-12-15	3	3rd	13 14 15 16
2019-12-12	2	3rd	1 2 15 18
2019-12-10	15	2nd	5 15 25 28
2019-11-25	14	4th	6 10 11 15
2019-11-11	4	1st	15 18 21 22
2019-11-07	8	3rd	2 4 15 25
2019-10-30	20	2nd	1 15 23 27
2019-10-10	4	2nd	7 15 16 20
2019-10-06	25	3rd	7 13 15 28
2019-09-11	1	3rd	2 12 15 25
2019-09-10	12	2nd	9 15 24 28
2019-08-29	10	2nd	10 15 18 28
2019-08-19	15	4th	4 8 11 15
2019-08-04	8	1st	15 21 23 27
2019-07-27	7	1st	15 17 22 24
2019-07-20	6	2nd	13 15 22 25
2019-07-14	1	3rd	1 5 15 26
2019-07-13	20	4th	1 6 10 15
2019-06-23	12	3rd	5 10 15 22
2019-06-11	8	2nd	14 15 18 26
2019-06-03	1	2nd	4 15 21 24
2019-06-02	3	3rd	3 9 15 19
2019-05-30	4	3rd	1 5 15 18
2019-05-26	4	2nd	13 15 16 17
2019-05-22	5	2nd	11 15 22 24
2019-05-17	6	3rd	10 12 15 25
2019-05-11	16	4th	3 7 12 15
2019-04-25	2	3rd	6 13 15 19
2019-04-23	2	3rd	7 10 15 28
2019-04-21	23	2nd	5 15 17 25
2019-03-29	2	3rd	2 7 15 17
2019-03-27	2	3rd	11 14 15 19
2019-03-25	3	2nd	8 15 18 19
2019-03-22	1	3rd	1 14 15 22
2019-03-21	9	3rd	1 5 15 21
2019-03-12	21	3rd	6 9 15 16
2019-02-19	1	3rd	8 9 15 16
2019-02-18	21	4th	1 6 12 15
2019-01-28	29	3rd	1 14 15 28
2018-12-30	4	2nd	14 15 16 18
2018-12-26	4	3rd	7 14 15 23
2018-12-22	25	3rd	9 13 15 24
2018-11-27	2	2nd	12 15 25 28
2018-11-25	6	2nd	4 15 20 27
2018-11-19	2	3rd	2 11 15 20
2018-11-17	10	3rd	3 7 15 19
2018-11-07	10	3rd	10 14 15 17
2018-10-28	17	3rd	1 4 15 26
2018-10-11	3	2nd	6 15 17 25
2018-10-08	6	3rd	12 13 15 23
2018-10-02	3	3rd	7 13 15 16
2018-09-29	3	3rd	10 14 15 28
2018-09-26	14	4th	10 11 13 15
2018-09-12	1	3rd	7 14 15 23
2018-09-11	1	3rd	4 10 15 22
2018-09-10	2	3rd	5 12 15 16
2018-09-08	1	2nd	7 15 20 28
2018-09-07	1	4th	3 8 13 15
2018-09-06	2	3rd	3 8 15 18
2018-09-04	1	2nd	11 15 24 26
2018-09-03	3	2nd	11 15 16 27
2018-08-31	8	4th	7 8 14 15
2018-08-23	9	3rd	6 9 15 16
2018-08-14	3	3rd	2 7 15 23
2018-08-11	3	3rd	11 12 15 20
2018-08-08	1	3rd	10 14 15 26
2018-08-07	4	3rd	5 13 15 23
2018-08-03	4	3rd	3 5 15 20
2018-07-30	7	3rd	12 14 15 24
2018-07-23	13	2nd	1 15 21 22
2018-07-10	8	3rd	3 6 15 24
2018-07-02	2	3rd	3 6 15 18
2018-06-30	14	3rd	1 14 15 21
2018-06-16	18	2nd	3 15 26 28
2018-05-29	2	3rd	8 10 15 28
2018-05-27	5	3rd	9 12 15 26
2018-05-22	11	3rd	6 13 15 24
2018-05-11	10	2nd	5 15 19 21
2018-05-01	3	3rd	1 8 15 22
2018-04-28	10	2nd	8 15 17 21
2018-04-18	1	2nd	6 15 22 26
2018-04-17	6	2nd	2 15 23 27
2018-04-11	2	3rd	3 6 15 27
2018-04-09	11	2nd	8 15 17 26
2018-03-29	10	2nd	4 15 22 23
2018-03-19	7	4th	2 3 6 15
2018-03-12	3	3rd	4 11 15 25
2018-03-09	3	3rd	11 12 15 27
2018-03-06	3	3rd	2 10 15 23
2018-03-03	6	4th	1 4 9 15
2018-02-25	1	2nd	8 15 21 24
2018-02-24	5	3rd	2 4 15 22
2018-02-19	1	2nd	5 15 23 26
2018-02-18	9	3rd	7 13 15 21
2018-02-09	1	3rd	4 10 15 25
2018-02-08	3	2nd	14 15 17 18
2018-02-05	9	3rd	6 7 15 20
2018-01-27	1	2nd	11 15 17 25
2018-01-26	1	1st	15 20 24 25
2018-01-25	2	3rd	7 11 15 26
2018-01-23	11	2nd	2 15 16 25
2018-01-12	13	2nd	8 15 21 22
2017-12-30	1	4th	3 12 13 15
2017-12-29	5	2nd	2 15 17 19
2017-12-24	1	3rd	10 14 15 25
2017-12-23	7	2nd	10 15 16 22
2017-12-16	6	3rd	6 14 15 18
2017-12-10	1	1st	15 21 22 28
2017-12-09	5	3rd	10 14 15 19
2017-12-04	2	3rd	8 13 15 27
2017-12-02	3	1st	15 22 23 26
2017-11-29	6	4th	4 8 14 15
2017-11-23	2	3rd	4 5 15 22
2017-11-21	4	3rd	11 14 15 21
2017-11-17	1	3rd	4 14 15 22
2017-11-16	28	2nd	10 15 20 21
2017-10-18	10	2nd	10 15 22 24
2017-10-08	4	3rd	1 9 15 24
2017-10-04	17	1st	15 19 20 28
2017-09-16	4	4th	6 8 13 15
2017-09-12	35	2nd	10 15 16 22
2017-08-08	6	2nd	7 15 17 20
2017-08-02	1	2nd	4 15 25 27
2017-08-01	11	3rd	4 14 15 26
2017-07-21	6	4th	5 9 11 15
2017-07-15	9	3rd	1 10 15 26
2017-07-06	3	3rd	1 6 15 17
2017-07-03	1	2nd	3 15 18 22
2017-07-02	2	2nd	11 15 18 20
2017-06-30	3	3rd	10 13 15 18
2017-06-27	1	2nd	3 15 17 23
2017-06-26	2	3rd	4 6 15 21
2017-06-24	5	2nd	12 15 19 27
2017-06-19	3	2nd	11 15 21 23
2017-06-16	2	3rd	2 7 15 25
2017-06-14	7	4th	2 7 12 15
2017-06-07	10	2nd	4 15 24 28
2017-05-28	7	1st	15 23 27 28
2017-05-21	8	2nd	3 15 17 24
2017-05-13	4	3rd	3 14 15 24
2017-05-09	7	2nd	9 15 16 28
2017-05-02	1	2nd	9 15 16 18
2017-05-01	4	3rd	10 12 15 19
2017-04-27	4	3rd	4 14 15 19
2017-04-23	3	2nd	12 15 23 27
2017-04-20	7	3rd	2 4 15 28
2017-04-13	2	4th	6 8 13 15
2017-04-11	6	3rd	3 12 15 22
2017-04-05	1	2nd	9 15 16 26
2017-04-04	6	1st	15 21 25 27
2017-03-29	16	3rd	6 10 15 24
2017-03-13	8	2nd	5 15 21 25
2017-03-05	4	1st	15 17 19 20
2017-03-01	1	3rd	11 13 15 25
2017-02-28	5	2nd	14 15 19 26
2017-02-23	3	2nd	1 15 18 28
2017-02-20	2	1st	15 16 26 27
2017-02-18	8	2nd	13 15 18 20
2017-02-10	4	3rd	3 5 15 21
2017-02-06	6	3rd	2 10 15 28
2017-01-31	3	3rd	9 14 15 16
2017-01-28	6	3rd	5 12 15 27
2017-01-22	2	4th	3 7 12 15
2017-01-20	3	2nd	12 15 24 28
2017-01-17	12	3rd	3 6 15 23
2017-01-05	22	3rd	6 7 15 26
2016-12-14	1	2nd	1 15 16 21
2016-12-13	7	2nd	11 15 20 25
2016-12-06	2	2nd	6 15 16 24
2016-12-04	6	4th	3 10 13 15
2016-11-28	—	2nd	11 15 18 20