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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Revancha · every number

22

Number 22

In Revancha under the 5/35 · Apr 2022 – Jun 2025 rules — 479 draws, 5 from 1–35 (an earlier era).

5/35 + 1/10 · since Jun 20255/35 · Apr 2022 – Jun 2025
71times drawn · chance expected 68 +0.34σ
7draws waiting · a wait this long: 40% for any number
6.7average wait between appearances · chance says 7.0
21longest completed wait · 96% chance of one at least that long
22 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 71 times in 479 draws against 68.4 expected, +0.34σ. Each draw is independent: after 7 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

22

Number 22, draw by draw

Drawn 71 times in 479 draws · average wait 6.7 draws · longest completed wait 21 · waiting 7 draws now

1 draws: 2022-04-27 to 2022-04-2910 draws: 2022-04-29 to 2022-05-2317 draws: 2022-05-23 to 2022-07-017 draws: 2022-07-01 to 2022-07-208 draws: 2022-07-20 to 2022-08-085 draws: 2022-08-08 to 2022-08-192 draws: 2022-08-19 to 2022-08-247 draws: 2022-08-24 to 2022-09-0914 draws: 2022-09-09 to 2022-10-1215 draws: 2022-10-12 to 2022-11-167 draws: 2022-11-16 to 2022-12-0214 draws: 2022-12-02 to 2023-01-112 draws: 2023-01-11 to 2023-01-168 draws: 2023-01-16 to 2023-02-032 draws: 2023-02-03 to 2023-02-088 draws: 2023-02-08 to 2023-02-2717 draws: 2023-02-27 to 2023-04-102 draws: 2023-04-10 to 2023-04-143 draws: 2023-04-14 to 2023-04-219 draws: 2023-04-21 to 2023-05-129 draws: 2023-05-12 to 2023-06-028 draws: 2023-06-02 to 2023-06-212 draws: 2023-06-21 to 2023-06-261 draws: 2023-06-26 to 2023-06-283 draws: 2023-06-28 to 2023-07-059 draws: 2023-07-05 to 2023-07-269 draws: 2023-07-26 to 2023-08-164 draws: 2023-08-16 to 2023-08-251 draws: 2023-08-25 to 2023-08-287 draws: 2023-08-28 to 2023-09-135 draws: 2023-09-13 to 2023-09-252 draws: 2023-09-25 to 2023-09-2913 draws: 2023-09-29 to 2023-10-304 draws: 2023-10-30 to 2023-11-088 draws: 2023-11-08 to 2023-11-2721 draws: 2023-11-27 to 2024-01-191 draws: 2024-01-19 to 2024-01-222 draws: 2024-01-22 to 2024-01-266 draws: 2024-01-26 to 2024-02-092 draws: 2024-02-09 to 2024-02-1411 draws: 2024-02-14 to 2024-03-1112 draws: 2024-03-11 to 2024-04-1010 draws: 2024-04-10 to 2024-05-035 draws: 2024-05-03 to 2024-05-1515 draws: 2024-05-15 to 2024-06-191 draws: 2024-06-19 to 2024-06-2111 draws: 2024-06-21 to 2024-07-1713 draws: 2024-07-17 to 2024-08-161 draws: 2024-08-16 to 2024-08-195 draws: 2024-08-19 to 2024-08-301 draws: 2024-08-30 to 2024-09-026 draws: 2024-09-02 to 2024-09-165 draws: 2024-09-16 to 2024-09-277 draws: 2024-09-27 to 2024-10-148 draws: 2024-10-14 to 2024-11-016 draws: 2024-11-01 to 2024-11-1513 draws: 2024-11-15 to 2024-12-166 draws: 2024-12-16 to 2025-01-034 draws: 2025-01-03 to 2025-01-1510 draws: 2025-01-15 to 2025-02-072 draws: 2025-02-07 to 2025-02-121 draws: 2025-02-12 to 2025-02-147 draws: 2025-02-14 to 2025-03-033 draws: 2025-03-03 to 2025-03-102 draws: 2025-03-10 to 2025-03-141 draws: 2025-03-14 to 2025-03-179 draws: 2025-03-17 to 2025-04-075 draws: 2025-04-07 to 2025-04-2111 draws: 2025-04-21 to 2025-05-164 draws: 2025-05-16 to 2025-05-26Still waiting — at least 7 draws since 2025-05-262022-04-272022-04-292022-05-232022-07-012022-07-202022-08-082022-08-192022-08-242022-09-092022-10-122022-11-162022-12-022023-01-112023-01-162023-02-032023-02-082023-02-272023-04-102023-04-142023-04-212023-05-122023-06-022023-06-212023-06-262023-06-282023-07-052023-07-262023-08-162023-08-252023-08-282023-09-132023-09-252023-09-292023-10-302023-11-082023-11-272024-01-192024-01-222024-01-262024-02-092024-02-142024-03-112024-04-102024-05-032024-05-152024-06-192024-06-212024-07-172024-08-162024-08-192024-08-302024-09-022024-09-162024-09-272024-10-142024-11-012024-11-152024-12-162025-01-032025-01-152025-02-072025-02-122025-02-142025-03-032025-03-102025-03-142025-03-172025-04-072025-04-212025-05-162025-05-262022-04-252025-06-11

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

1 draws: 9 times2 draws: 10 times3 draws: 3 times4 draws: 4 times5 draws: 6 times6 draws: 4 times7 draws: 6 times8 draws: 6 times9 draws: 5 times10 draws: 3 times11 draws: 3 times12 draws: 1 time13 draws: 3 times14 draws: 2 times15 draws: 2 times16 draws: 0 times17 draws: 2 times18 draws: 0 times19 draws: 0 times20 draws: 0 times21 draws: 1 time22 draws: 0 times23 draws: 0 times24 draws: 0 timesits own waitsdraws between appearances

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 22 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

  • 1st smallest0 · chance 1.1
  • 2nd smallest3 · chance 9.2
  • 3rd smallest27 · chance 25.1
  • 4th smallest27 · chance 26.5
  • 5th smallest14 · chance 9.2

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 8.4 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

51346711

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 34 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 22 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 35. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

  • Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 22 →

Every draw it appeared in

DateWaitPositionThe draw
2025-05-2643rd116223135
2025-05-16113rd512222634
2025-04-2153rd1719222732
2025-04-0794th913
← number 21Every numbernumber 23 →
What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 22 is drawn with probability 5/35 tonight whatever it did last week.

21
22
30
2025-03-1714th312162235
2025-03-1424th220212225
2025-03-1033rd717222428
2025-03-0375th47171822
2025-02-1415th19121922
2025-02-1225th210142022
2025-02-07105th510152122
2025-01-1543rd1719222326
2025-01-0365th19182122
2024-12-16134th513142232
2024-11-1564th68142224
2024-11-0184th513142232
2024-10-1475th2891922
2024-09-2754th418202228
2024-09-1664th1216172229
2024-09-0213rd710222528
2024-08-3054th612212232
2024-08-1913rd815222326
2024-08-16134th2792231
2024-07-17115th67101122
The other 47 appearances
2024-06-2114th1315162235
2024-06-19154th14162233
2024-05-1554th67122225
2024-05-03103rd1521223134
2024-04-10124th1215202224
2024-03-11114th114162233
2024-02-1425th413161722
2024-02-0965th67111522
2024-01-2625th1251122
2024-01-2214th3462229
2024-01-19213rd612222831
2023-11-2785th123422
2023-11-0843rd1320222432
2023-10-30133rd113222530
2023-09-2923rd620222630
2023-09-2553rd114222327
2023-09-1373rd1113222335
2023-08-2814th611212230
2023-08-2543rd520222633
2023-08-1694th35122232
2023-07-2693rd57222432
2023-07-0533rd718222834
2023-06-2813rd513222631
2023-06-2624th26112228
2023-06-2185th714151622
2023-06-0294th38192233
2023-05-1292nd1322242531
2023-04-2134th25112234
2023-04-1424th59102235
2023-04-10173rd414222332
2023-02-2782nd522293031
2023-02-0824th24142229
2023-02-0383rd1316222528
2023-01-1623rd421222735
2023-01-11143rd1819222433
2022-12-0273rd921222329
2022-11-16154th711132225
2022-10-12143rd1114222429
2022-09-0973rd34222327
2022-08-2425th23131522
2022-08-1954th411162234
2022-08-0884th1520212230
2022-07-2075th4691122
2022-07-01174th59152229
2022-05-23102nd1522232833
2022-04-2913rd414222731
2022-04-27—3rd513222325