In Revancha under the 5/35 · Apr 2022 – Jun 2025 rules — 479 draws, 5 from 1–35 (an earlier era).
70times drawn · chance expected 68 +0.21σ
8draws waiting · a wait this long: 34% for any number
6.8average wait between appearances · chance says 7.0
35longest completed wait · 31% chance of one at least that long
4 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 70 times in 479 draws against 68.4 expected, +0.21σ. Each draw is independent: after 8 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
4
Number 4, draw by draw
Drawn 70 times in 479 draws · average wait 6.8 draws · longest completed wait 35 · waiting 8 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
It has shared a draw with every one of the other 34 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 35. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 5/35 tonight whatever it did last week.