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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In Texas Two Step under the 5/35 · Feb 2022 – Nov 2022 rules — 75 draws, 5 from 1–35 (an earlier era).
Drawn 9 times in 75 draws against 10.7 expected, −0.57σ. Each draw is independent: after 1 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 9 times in 75 draws · average wait 8.9 draws · longest completed wait 21 · waiting 1 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.1 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 12 of the other 34 numbers; chance expects about 12 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 35. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-17 | 3 | 1st | 49151618 |
| 2022-11-07 | 6 | 1st | 49111330 |
| 2022-10-17 | 9 | 1st | 48111616 |
| 2022-09-05 | 8 | 3rd | 1 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 5/35 tonight whatever it did last week.
| 2022-08-08 | 3 | 1st | 49111733 |
| 2022-07-28 | 5 | 1st | 415192728 |
| 2022-07-11 | 16 | 2nd | 34183435 |
| 2022-05-16 | 21 | 1st | 413152232 |
| 2022-03-03 | — | 2nd | 24172235 |