Number 4

In Texas Two Step under the 4/35 + 1/35 · Jan 2010 – Feb 2022 rules — 1,266 draws, 4 from 1–35 (an earlier era).

185times drawn · chance expected 145 +3.56σ

7draws waiting · a wait this long: 48% for any number

6.8average wait between appearances · chance says 8.8

34longest completed wait · 97% chance of one at least that long

4 looks unusual on its own — and unremarkable among 35 numbers

Drawn 185 times in 1,266 draws against 144.7 expected, +3.56σ. Testing all 35 numbers at once means about 0.4 should look this way by luck alone, so the threshold tightens to 2.9e-4 and this does not pass it.

Number 4, draw by draw

Drawn 185 times in 1,266 draws · average wait 6.8 draws · longest completed wait 34 · waiting 7 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest128 · chance 139.0
2nd smallest53 · chance 43.1
3rd smallest4 · chance 2.9
4th smallest0 · chance 0.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 16.3 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

1 32 19 21 30 13

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 34 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 35. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 4 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2022-01-27	1	2nd	2 4 15 30
2022-01-24	2	1st	4 13 16 32
2022-01-17	10	1st	4 5 14 35
2021-12-13	1	2nd	1 4 24 28

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 4/35 tonight whatever it did last week.

2020-11-26	1	1st	4 13 21 34
2020-11-23	5	1st	4 21 29 32
2020-11-05	1	1st	4 6 18 19
2020-11-02	8	1st	4 21 24 28
2020-10-05	2	1st	4 9 19 21
2020-09-28	3	1st	4 12 25 35
2020-09-17	3	2nd	1 4 28 32
2020-09-07	5	1st	4 14 19 23
2020-08-20	4	1st	4 8 11 27
2020-08-06	2	2nd	1 4 13 34
2020-07-30	8	1st	4 14 17 18
2020-07-02	10	2nd	1 4 22 30
2020-05-28	9	1st	4 9 18 23
2020-04-27	5	1st	4 13 18 35
2020-04-09	8	1st	4 5 19 28
2020-03-12	23	2nd	1 4 18 20
2019-12-23	3	1st	4 10 19 24
2019-12-12	6	1st	4 10 14 26
2019-11-21	5	1st	4 19 24 26
2019-11-04	1	1st	4 5 10 34
2019-10-31	5	2nd	2 4 26 31
2019-10-14	9	2nd	2 4 12 20
2019-09-12	1	1st	4 23 26 28
2019-09-09	1	2nd	3 4 6 33
2019-09-05	3	1st	4 6 31 33
2019-08-26	3	1st	4 13 32 35
2019-08-15	2	1st	4 20 26 32
2019-08-08	12	2nd	1 4 5 9
2019-06-27	1	1st	4 6 16 17
2019-06-24	19	1st	4 16 29 33
2019-04-18	3	1st	4 16 18 32
2019-04-08	15	1st	4 28 30 31
2019-02-14	3	1st	4 13 24 26
2019-02-04	1	2nd	1 4 9 19
2019-01-31	18	2nd	1 4 11 12
2018-11-29	10	1st	4 11 26 30
2018-10-25	8	1st	4 10 28 30
2018-09-27	4	2nd	1 4 17 23
2018-09-13	2	1st	4 17 22 32
2018-09-06	6	1st	4 6 10 21
2018-08-16	5	2nd	1 4 5 17
2018-07-30	13	1st	4 14 19 27
2018-06-14	2	1st	4 5 24 25
2018-06-07	8	2nd	1 4 13 22
2018-05-10	7	1st	4 7 11 22
2018-04-16	2	1st	4 17 30 34
2018-04-09	13	2nd	2 4 20 24
2018-02-19	4	1st	4 9 23 26
2018-02-05	1	2nd	2 4 10 23
2018-02-01	6	1st	4 7 14 19
2018-01-11	7	1st	4 15 18 29
2017-12-18	1	1st	4 13 21 32
2017-12-14	1	1st	4 16 23 35
2017-12-11	8	1st	4 20 25 28
2017-11-13	6	1st	4 10 27 29
2017-10-23	7	1st	4 6 11 31
2017-09-28	3	1st	4 7 15 23
2017-09-18	6	1st	4 9 26 32
2017-08-28	9	1st	4 13 14 17
2017-07-27	1	2nd	1 4 17 22
2017-07-24	2	1st	4 5 33 35
2017-07-17	15	1st	4 17 31 32
2017-05-25	1	2nd	2 4 31 34
2017-05-22	19	1st	4 11 13 24
2017-03-16	5	1st	4 16 21 22
2017-02-27	8	1st	4 7 19 32
2017-01-30	15	1st	4 9 18 19
2016-12-08	19	1st	4 5 31 32
2016-10-03	3	1st	4 5 16 17
2016-09-22	2	1st	4 20 30 32
2016-09-15	1	2nd	3 4 15 17
2016-09-12	16	2nd	3 4 13 21
2016-07-18	12	1st	4 7 8 11
2016-06-06	3	1st	4 7 25 32
2016-05-26	28	1st	4 19 32 33
2016-02-18	10	2nd	2 4 16 24
2016-01-14	9	2nd	3 4 17 27
2015-12-14	16	1st	4 14 20 22
2015-10-19	9	2nd	1 4 6 21
2015-09-17	2	2nd	1 4 17 35
2015-09-10	26	2nd	2 4 30 35
2015-06-11	4	1st	4 19 25 28
2015-05-28	4	2nd	3 4 23 34
2015-05-14	4	1st	4 14 18 34
2015-04-30	1	1st	4 15 21 26
2015-04-27	1	1st	4 16 28 29
2015-04-23	2	1st	4 17 26 34
2015-04-16	3	2nd	3 4 5 28
2015-04-06	4	2nd	1 4 8 23
2015-03-23	12	1st	4 10 21 30
2015-02-09	1	1st	4 14 29 30
2015-02-05	1	1st	4 7 10 31
2015-02-02	2	3rd	1 2 4 22
2015-01-26	18	3rd	1 3 4 25
2014-11-24	15	1st	4 14 22 30
2014-10-02	2	1st	4 18 30 32
2014-09-25	4	2nd	1 4 11 31
2014-09-11	8	2nd	3 4 13 27
2014-08-14	11	1st	4 28 30 33
2014-07-07	7	1st	4 8 10 29
2014-06-12	9	2nd	3 4 11 13
2014-05-12	1	2nd	1 4 12 35
2014-05-08	1	2nd	1 4 10 29
2014-05-05	3	2nd	2 4 6 16
2014-04-24	9	1st	4 8 10 15
2014-03-24	1	2nd	1 4 21 22
2014-03-20	5	1st	4 8 21 34
2014-03-03	5	2nd	2 4 18 22
2014-02-13	1	1st	4 14 23 33
2014-02-10	14	2nd	3 4 23 26
2013-12-23	10	1st	4 19 22 28
2013-11-18	20	2nd	1 4 7 10
2013-09-09	8	1st	4 7 21 24
2013-08-12	1	2nd	3 4 7 21
2013-08-08	24	1st	4 15 18 20
2013-05-16	16	1st	4 19 26 32
2013-03-21	4	1st	4 8 9 23
2013-03-07	2	1st	4 5 30 32
2013-02-28	6	1st	4 13 14 21
2013-02-07	4	1st	4 20 25 33
2013-01-24	25	1st	4 17 31 35
2012-10-29	6	1st	4 6 15 22
2012-10-08	5	2nd	1 4 16 33
2012-09-20	29	1st	4 9 14 21
2012-06-11	17	1st	4 6 21 29
2012-04-12	2	2nd	3 4 20 24
2012-04-05	1	2nd	1 4 21 23
2012-04-02	4	2nd	2 4 24 27
2012-03-19	9	2nd	2 4 24 30
2012-02-16	1	1st	4 17 19 33
2012-02-13	3	1st	4 12 24 34
2012-02-02	9	1st	4 6 18 33
2012-01-02	2	1st	4 8 16 27
2011-12-26	12	1st	4 8 9 25
2011-11-14	2	1st	4 6 11 19
2011-11-07	4	1st	4 19 25 31
2011-10-24	11	1st	4 6 9 35
2011-09-15	3	1st	4 13 19 33
2011-09-05	2	3rd	1 3 4 20
2011-08-29	6	1st	4 11 16 35
2011-08-08	2	1st	4 25 31 32
2011-08-01	4	1st	4 12 13 35
2011-07-18	7	1st	4 20 27 29
2011-06-23	4	2nd	3 4 6 30
2011-06-09	2	1st	4 21 27 29
2011-06-02	6	1st	4 9 10 16
2011-05-12	6	1st	4 9 10 27
2011-04-21	6	1st	4 13 25 33
2011-03-31	1	2nd	3 4 9 16
2011-03-28	16	1st	4 16 17 33
2011-01-31	8	1st	4 12 17 18
2011-01-03	1	1st	4 6 9 34
2010-12-30	14	1st	4 7 20 31
2010-11-11	15	1st	4 5 22 23
2010-09-20	8	1st	4 28 29 34
2010-08-23	9	1st	4 18 25 31
2010-07-22	3	1st	4 6 22 33
2010-07-12	8	1st	4 8 20 31
2010-06-14	34	1st	4 6 30 34
2010-02-15	6	1st	4 20 28 32
2010-01-25	—	1st	4 5 15 30