Number 15

In Hit 5 under the 5/39 · Jan 2010 – Sep 2020 rules — 1,676 draws, 5 from 1–39 (an earlier era).

201times drawn · chance expected 215 −1.01σ

0draws waiting — it came up last time

8.2average wait between appearances · chance says 7.8

43longest completed wait · 47% chance of one at least that long

15 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 201 times in 1,676 draws against 214.9 expected, −1.01σ. Each draw is independent: after 0 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 15, draw by draw

Drawn 201 times in 1,676 draws · average wait 8.2 draws · longest completed wait 43 · drawn in the most recent draw

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 15 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest22 · chance 28.9
2nd smallest83 · chance 77.2
3rd smallest62 · chance 68.4
4th smallest27 · chance 23.8
5th smallest7 · chance 2.7

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 21.2 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

2 22 35 28 13 12

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 38 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 15 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 39. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 15 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2020-09-05	8	3rd	8 12 15 33 35
2020-08-26	9	2nd	3 15 21 30 32
2020-08-05	35	2nd	13 15 22 25 33
2020-05-16	5	3rd	9 14 15

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 15 is drawn with probability 5/39 tonight whatever it did last week.

2019-03-23	1	1st	15 18 22 24 31
2019-03-20	2	3rd	13 14 15 24 30
2019-03-16	9	3rd	9 11 15 33 36
2019-02-23	6	2nd	2 15 17 20 33
2019-02-09	9	2nd	12 15 19 24 26
2019-01-19	1	2nd	10 15 31 38 39
2019-01-16	19	3rd	6 7 15 20 22
2018-12-03	4	3rd	4 12 15 21 36
2018-11-24	7	4th	2 8 12 15 25
2018-11-07	6	1st	15 24 32 37 38
2018-10-24	11	2nd	2 15 31 36 37
2018-09-29	2	3rd	2 9 15 16 25
2018-09-24	2	4th	5 6 8 15 22
2018-09-19	1	3rd	4 5 15 25 32
2018-09-17	3	3rd	4 10 15 34 37
2018-09-10	6	3rd	2 11 15 16 32
2018-08-27	1	1st	15 17 20 32 34
2018-08-25	2	2nd	6 15 20 27 32
2018-08-20	21	3rd	6 14 15 25 34
2018-07-02	10	1st	15 17 29 34 36
2018-06-09	11	5th	2 4 9 10 15
2018-05-14	2	4th	4 7 9 15 22
2018-05-09	8	1st	15 30 32 36 38
2018-04-21	2	4th	8 10 14 15 34
2018-04-16	13	3rd	7 13 15 29 33
2018-03-17	11	3rd	13 14 15 18 38
2018-02-19	1	2nd	2 15 17 30 37
2018-02-17	10	1st	15 19 24 33 35
2018-01-24	1	3rd	4 12 15 24 28
2018-01-22	13	3rd	3 11 15 25 33
2017-12-23	9	2nd	1 15 26 27 32
2017-12-02	17	3rd	2 4 15 23 33
2017-10-23	5	2nd	8 15 24 36 38
2017-10-11	1	4th	10 11 12 15 22
2017-10-09	3	2nd	13 15 28 29 35
2017-10-02	4	2nd	2 15 16 35 38
2017-09-23	6	4th	2 4 12 15 31
2017-09-09	3	2nd	8 15 17 25 29
2017-09-02	8	5th	4 5 11 12 15
2017-08-14	2	2nd	5 15 28 32 34
2017-08-09	4	4th	8 11 13 15 26
2017-07-31	6	4th	11 12 13 15 17
2017-07-17	11	4th	2 4 9 15 27
2017-06-21	4	1st	15 16 19 22 30
2017-06-12	16	2nd	12 15 23 27 35
2017-05-06	14	3rd	2 6 15 27 37
2017-04-03	11	2nd	9 15 20 26 27
2017-03-08	6	1st	15 19 31 34 35
2017-02-22	19	4th	10 11 12 15 36
2017-01-09	3	4th	1 5 8 15 30
2017-01-02	6	4th	3 8 13 15 39
2016-12-19	18	2nd	10 15 32 36 38
2016-11-07	10	3rd	3 13 15 16 23
2016-10-15	2	3rd	2 6 15 28 37
2016-10-10	6	3rd	3 12 15 28 35
2016-09-26	1	2nd	5 15 17 18 23
2016-09-24	1	3rd	3 11 15 18 25
2016-09-21	6	2nd	14 15 17 26 32
2016-09-07	35	3rd	9 13 15 24 38
2016-06-18	8	4th	1 6 8 15 35
2016-05-30	14	3rd	8 14 15 20 38
2016-04-27	15	3rd	1 13 15 33 38
2016-03-23	6	2nd	8 15 19 34 39
2016-03-09	3	1st	15 16 18 20 35
2016-03-02	5	1st	15 18 21 23 30
2016-02-20	3	4th	4 5 10 15 36
2016-02-13	7	4th	4 7 13 15 33
2016-01-27	5	1st	15 23 25 33 36
2016-01-16	2	4th	7 11 13 15 33
2016-01-11	3	2nd	8 15 16 17 34
2016-01-04	4	4th	2 11 13 15 23
2015-12-26	3	2nd	7 15 18 33 36
2015-12-19	12	2nd	2 15 22 25 36
2015-11-21	12	2nd	3 15 22 27 31
2015-10-24	7	2nd	9 15 17 18 33
2015-10-07	5	2nd	13 15 27 31 39
2015-09-26	7	3rd	3 12 15 31 35
2015-09-09	1	2nd	10 15 21 22 24
2015-09-07	1	2nd	8 15 24 25 26
2015-09-05	13	3rd	2 11 15 22 35
2015-08-05	6	2nd	13 15 21 28 37
2015-07-22	1	2nd	10 15 21 25 35
2015-07-20	35	2nd	12 15 26 28 34
2015-04-29	3	2nd	10 15 18 19 35
2015-04-22	6	3rd	1 5 15 17 32
2015-04-08	2	3rd	5 14 15 22 27
2015-04-04	10	3rd	8 9 15 24 38
2015-03-11	8	3rd	5 14 15 21 31
2015-02-21	1	4th	7 9 11 15 29
2015-02-18	3	2nd	14 15 20 22 34
2015-02-11	7	2nd	2 15 19 32 38
2015-01-26	15	3rd	1 5 15 22 26
2014-12-22	31	3rd	3 5 15 37 38
2014-10-11	15	2nd	4 15 22 26 27
2014-09-06	6	3rd	5 7 15 18 35
2014-08-23	2	2nd	14 15 20 25 28
2014-08-18	10	3rd	13 14 15 32 39
2014-07-26	4	2nd	14 15 29 33 38
2014-07-16	3	4th	6 9 12 15 33
2014-07-09	11	3rd	9 12 15 19 35
2014-06-14	14	3rd	5 13 15 17 33
2014-05-12	19	2nd	14 15 24 28 38
2014-03-29	4	3rd	2 14 15 22 28
2014-03-19	8	1st	15 20 22 27 34
2014-03-01	13	5th	3 4 6 13 15
2014-01-29	6	3rd	1 4 15 18 27
2014-01-15	1	2nd	14 15 28 36 37
2014-01-13	3	5th	1 7 11 12 15
2014-01-06	23	2nd	13 15 18 19 27
2013-11-13	10	3rd	2 5 15 21 28
2013-10-21	14	2nd	4 15 21 35 37
2013-09-18	6	2nd	11 15 17 29 35
2013-09-04	7	3rd	5 7 15 22 25
2013-08-19	1	3rd	7 13 15 20 35
2013-08-17	3	3rd	11 14 15 24 34
2013-08-10	11	4th	2 3 6 15 28
2013-07-15	5	2nd	14 15 17 29 30
2013-07-03	4	1st	15 17 20 35 36
2013-06-24	3	1st	15 24 32 36 38
2013-06-17	19	5th	2 3 5 14 15
2013-05-04	2	2nd	1 15 18 25 29
2013-04-29	4	1st	15 20 22 31 37
2013-04-20	36	2nd	3 15 27 28 32
2013-01-26	10	4th	1 2 3 15 27
2013-01-02	16	2nd	12 15 20 23 28
2012-11-26	2	2nd	3 15 19 27 38
2012-11-21	9	3rd	4 11 15 26 37
2012-10-31	23	3rd	1 7 15 16 21
2012-09-08	11	3rd	5 8 15 35 36
2012-08-13	5	2nd	14 15 21 24 27
2012-08-01	10	1st	15 16 26 36 37
2012-07-09	2	4th	1 9 12 15 25
2012-07-04	3	2nd	4 15 16 19 25
2012-06-27	6	1st	15 18 26 29 39
2012-06-13	6	3rd	7 11 15 22 35
2012-05-30	11	3rd	5 10 15 34 39
2012-05-05	13	4th	2 12 13 15 39
2012-04-04	2	2nd	7 15 18 19 26
2012-03-31	1	2nd	14 15 27 32 35
2012-03-28	2	3rd	4 6 15 19 31
2012-03-24	1	2nd	7 15 25 28 31
2012-03-21	8	3rd	4 6 15 22 33
2012-03-03	34	1st	15 22 34 36 39
2011-12-14	12	1st	15 22 23 26 28
2011-11-16	2	2nd	9 15 16 18 37
2011-11-12	7	2nd	4 15 16 27 39
2011-10-26	15	2nd	13 15 22 28 37
2011-09-21	3	3rd	2 11 15 17 36
2011-09-14	4	5th	5 8 9 13 15
2011-09-05	3	5th	2 3 11 12 15
2011-08-29	17	4th	2 6 8 15 26
2011-07-20	1	2nd	2 15 16 28 35
2011-07-18	1	2nd	7 15 17 27 38
2011-07-16	10	2nd	4 15 23 32 38
2011-06-22	2	2nd	7 15 17 23 35
2011-06-18	43	4th	7 10 14 15 28
2011-03-09	1	3rd	1 14 15 17 28
2011-03-07	1	2nd	3 15 21 30 38
2011-03-05	11	2nd	8 15 24 27 35
2011-02-07	2	3rd	1 9 15 23 33
2011-02-02	2	3rd	5 10 15 17 20
2011-01-29	6	4th	6 8 9 15 19
2011-01-15	11	2nd	9 15 31 34 38
2010-12-20	16	2nd	12 15 17 23 39
2010-11-13	5	2nd	2 15 21 22 39
2010-11-01	2	2nd	8 15 23 28 29
2010-10-27	3	3rd	9 13 15 16 39
2010-10-20	2	2nd	3 15 16 20 28
2010-10-16	13	2nd	12 15 16 23 36
2010-09-15	2	2nd	7 15 22 27 30
2010-09-11	20	2nd	13 15 18 21 24
2010-07-26	10	2nd	12 15 16 22 26
2010-07-03	8	4th	3 8 10 15 31
2010-06-14	8	2nd	11 15 21 22 27
2010-05-26	22	3rd	4 5 15 16 32
2010-04-05	14	1st	15 22 34 35 36
2010-03-03	—	3rd	3 8 15 28 37