Number 16

In PowerBall under the 5/45 + 1/20 · Oct 2009 – Jun 2018 rules — 896 draws, 5 from 1–45 (an earlier era).

96times drawn · chance expected 100 −0.38σ

17draws waiting · a wait this long: 15% for any number

9.2average wait between appearances · chance says 9.0

44longest completed wait · 45% chance of one at least that long

16 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 96 times in 896 draws against 99.6 expected, −0.38σ. Each draw is independent: after 17 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 16, draw by draw

Drawn 96 times in 896 draws · average wait 9.2 draws · longest completed wait 44 · waiting 17 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 16 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest9 · chance 16.8
2nd smallest48 · chance 38.8
3rd smallest32 · chance 30.1
4th smallest5 · chance 9.3
5th smallest2 · chance 1.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 8.7 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

10 6 31 4 11 22

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 44 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 16 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 45. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 16 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2018-04-24	2	2nd	6 16 17 39 43
2018-04-17	4	4th	3 6 7 16 33
2018-04-03	10	3rd	4 13 16 33 40
2018-02-27	19	2nd	6 16

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 16 is drawn with probability 5/45 tonight whatever it did last week.

2016-02-05	3	3rd	6 15 16 31 40
2016-01-26	4	3rd	3 12 16 27 37
2016-01-12	5	2nd	10 16 27 29 36
2015-12-22	9	3rd	3 8 16 38 43
2015-11-20	2	2nd	10 16 29 37 41
2015-11-13	22	3rd	2 11 16 31 45
2015-08-28	15	2nd	10 16 18 20 31
2015-07-07	8	2nd	11 16 20 22 38
2015-06-09	18	3rd	2 8 16 18 30
2015-04-07	44	2nd	5 16 22 24 40
2014-10-31	42	2nd	4 16 21 35 36
2014-06-06	17	3rd	4 10 16 29 42
2014-04-04	8	2nd	3 16 22 24 44
2014-03-07	14	1st	16 18 22 37 38
2014-01-17	6	2nd	10 16 23 26 33
2013-12-27	1	2nd	4 16 19 34 39
2013-12-24	1	2nd	1 16 23 41 44
2013-12-20	3	3rd	10 12 16 28 37
2013-12-10	4	2nd	1 16 21 31 37
2013-11-26	1	2nd	5 16 19 33 34
2013-11-22	6	3rd	11 15 16 20 31
2013-11-01	1	3rd	6 15 16 37 44
2013-10-29	5	2nd	6 16 35 36 43
2013-10-11	9	1st	16 18 20 29 36
2013-09-10	1	3rd	6 13 16 22 32
2013-09-06	23	2nd	15 16 24 29 40
2013-06-18	11	5th	1 5 13 14 16
2013-05-10	4	3rd	2 4 16 18 26
2013-04-26	17	2nd	13 16 30 43 44
2013-02-22	20	2nd	4 16 28 32 42
2012-12-11	12	2nd	11 16 25 28 33
2012-10-30	11	2nd	5 16 20 41 42
2012-09-21	9	2nd	13 16 24 39 43
2012-08-21	11	2nd	14 16 19 38 43
2012-07-13	3	3rd	4 11 16 27 38
2012-07-03	6	1st	16 19 37 38 39
2012-06-12	10	2nd	2 16 22 36 43
2012-05-08	1	4th	4 9 10 16 20
2012-05-04	18	3rd	1 6 16 34 40
2012-02-28	22	1st	16 24 26 32 45
2011-12-13	2	2nd	14 16 22 32 35
2011-12-06	13	3rd	6 15 16 28 41
2011-10-21	19	2nd	2 16 23 39 42
2011-08-16	4	3rd	3 10 16 21 22
2011-08-02	5	3rd	3 9 16 27 31
2011-07-15	1	2nd	9 16 19 24 28
2011-07-12	4	2nd	10 16 28 34 45
2011-06-28	4	2nd	2 16 25 37 41
2011-06-14	2	2nd	11 16 34 39 40
2011-06-07	3	2nd	10 16 24 32 35
2011-05-27	1	2nd	7 16 22 34 45
2011-05-24	2	2nd	13 16 21 41 45
2011-05-17	6	2nd	13 16 24 26 27
2011-04-26	1	2nd	12 16 25 37 45
2011-04-19	4	4th	8 14 15 16 38
2011-04-05	3	1st	16 23 25 33 34
2011-03-25	14	2nd	13 16 25 36 39
2011-02-04	6	3rd	11 12 16 31 37
2011-01-14	18	2nd	8 16 21 36 42
2010-11-12	6	4th	4 8 11 16 40
2010-10-22	4	3rd	10 15 16 22 36
2010-10-08	2	3rd	3 7 16 21 40
2010-10-01	2	1st	16 22 28 30 31
2010-09-24	27	4th	1 5 10 16 19
2010-06-22	5	1st	16 23 36 40 45
2010-06-04	16	2nd	1 16 20 27 33
2010-04-09	6	2nd	2 16 27 30 31
2010-03-16	16	1st	16 32 40 42 45
2010-01-19	11	2nd	10 16 18 21 38
2009-12-08	5	2nd	13 16 37 39 42
2009-11-20	6	2nd	12 16 28 42 44
2009-10-30	—	3rd	11 14 16 30 31