Number 40

In PowerBall under the 5/45 + 1/20 · Oct 2009 – Jun 2018 rules — 896 draws, 5 from 1–45 (an earlier era).

105times drawn · chance expected 100 +0.58σ

6draws waiting · a wait this long: 55% for any number

8.5average wait between appearances · chance says 9.0

39longest completed wait · 70% chance of one at least that long

40 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 105 times in 896 draws against 99.6 expected, +0.58σ. Each draw is independent: after 6 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 40, draw by draw

Drawn 105 times in 896 draws · average wait 8.5 draws · longest completed wait 39 · waiting 6 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 40 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest0 · chance 0.0
2nd smallest0 · chance 0.3
3rd smallest10 · chance 5.7
4th smallest33 · chance 35.3
5th smallest62 · chance 63.6

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 9.5 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

1 8 42 21 43 7

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 44 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 40 is picked about 0.90× as often as an indifferent choice — 32nd most popular of 45. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers above 31 ×0.86
Round numbers (multiples of 10) ×1.05

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 40 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2018-06-01	4	3rd	1 37 40 41 43
2018-05-18	1	5th	6 10 11 28 40
2018-05-15	1	5th	5 10 20 27 40
2018-05-11	3	4th	8 22

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 40 is drawn with probability 5/45 tonight whatever it did last week.

2016-08-05	15	5th	3 21 34 37 40
2016-06-14	20	3rd	20 24 40 44 45
2016-04-05	2	5th	4 24 27 36 40
2016-03-29	7	4th	4 28 37 40 45
2016-03-04	6	4th	1 6 30 40 43
2016-02-12	2	3rd	9 32 40 42 44
2016-02-05	10	5th	6 15 16 31 40
2016-01-01	3	5th	13 17 24 34 40
2015-12-18	9	3rd	3 35 40 43 45
2015-11-17	3	5th	17 29 35 38 40
2015-11-06	2	4th	19 24 30 40 42
2015-10-30	12	4th	3 6 18 40 44
2015-09-18	9	4th	5 17 25 40 45
2015-08-18	25	4th	6 20 30 40 43
2015-05-22	2	4th	9 31 32 40 41
2015-05-15	11	3rd	8 26 40 44 45
2015-04-07	2	5th	5 16 22 24 40
2015-03-27	10	5th	8 23 33 35 40
2015-02-20	1	5th	2 11 12 19 40
2015-02-17	14	5th	1 5 9 18 40
2014-12-30	8	5th	8 15 25 31 40
2014-12-02	1	4th	19 25 26 40 43
2014-11-28	1	4th	21 28 33 40 43
2014-11-25	1	5th	8 19 24 37 40
2014-11-21	3	5th	7 10 12 32 40
2014-11-11	25	5th	3 4 18 22 40
2014-08-15	3	3rd	19 31 40 41 43
2014-08-05	3	5th	14 32 35 37 40
2014-07-25	16	4th	9 13 28 40 45
2014-05-30	2	4th	1 3 35 40 43
2014-05-23	5	3rd	12 22 40 42 43
2014-05-06	2	5th	4 15 26 37 40
2014-04-29	21	4th	12 20 31 40 44
2014-02-11	2	5th	3 7 10 13 40
2014-02-04	2	5th	4 20 21 29 40
2014-01-28	39	4th	1 8 22 40 43
2013-09-13	2	5th	8 19 27 30 40
2013-09-06	27	5th	15 16 24 29 40
2013-06-04	9	5th	17 25 28 34 40
2013-05-03	6	5th	10 19 21 27 40
2013-04-12	4	5th	5 12 36 37 40
2013-03-26	38	5th	1 18 31 37 40
2012-11-09	10	5th	7 14 17 27 40
2012-10-05	2	5th	1 9 11 39 40
2012-09-28	3	4th	1 6 7 40 41
2012-09-18	6	4th	1 27 37 40 42
2012-08-28	3	5th	1 7 8 11 40
2012-08-17	20	4th	13 15 19 40 42
2012-06-08	10	5th	14 15 32 36 40
2012-05-04	15	5th	1 6 16 34 40
2012-03-09	4	5th	2 21 22 29 40
2012-02-24	12	4th	17 21 26 40 45
2012-01-13	1	5th	15 20 23 25 40
2012-01-10	5	5th	18 20 24 26 40
2011-12-23	1	5th	7 13 21 22 40
2011-12-20	5	5th	20 21 25 37 40
2011-12-02	16	5th	5 6 25 38 40
2011-10-07	1	4th	33 36 38 40 44
2011-10-04	2	4th	8 10 26 40 42
2011-09-27	5	5th	1 7 8 22 40
2011-09-09	1	5th	10 18 23 36 40
2011-09-06	11	5th	1 2 5 30 40
2011-07-29	13	4th	7 12 23 40 42
2011-06-14	18	5th	11 16 34 39 40
2011-04-08	6	5th	1 14 37 39 40
2011-03-18	24	4th	8 28 36 40 42
2010-12-24	1	5th	26 30 31 33 40
2010-12-21	10	5th	19 25 31 39 40
2010-11-16	1	5th	4 28 32 38 40
2010-11-12	10	5th	4 8 11 16 40
2010-10-08	3	5th	3 7 16 21 40
2010-09-28	2	5th	1 3 4 5 40
2010-09-21	2	4th	31 33 36 40 42
2010-09-14	23	5th	3 23 29 33 40
2010-06-25	1	4th	13 23 31 40 42
2010-06-22	2	4th	16 23 36 40 45
2010-06-15	7	4th	13 25 34 40 41
2010-05-21	10	5th	2 14 25 30 40
2010-04-16	8	5th	7 19 21 37 40
2010-03-16	37	3rd	16 32 40 42 45
2009-11-03	—	5th	18 24 27 36 40