Number 15

In Fantasy 5 under the 5/39 · Jan 2010 – Oct 2015 rules — 2,098 draws, 5 from 1–39 (an earlier era).

278times drawn · chance expected 269 +0.59σ

5draws waiting · a wait this long: 58% for any number

7.5average wait between appearances · chance says 7.8

46longest completed wait · 44% chance of one at least that long

15 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 278 times in 2,098 draws against 269.0 expected, +0.59σ. Each draw is independent: after 5 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 15, draw by draw

Drawn 278 times in 2,098 draws · average wait 7.5 draws · longest completed wait 46 · waiting 5 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 15 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest42 · chance 40.0
2nd smallest98 · chance 106.7
3rd smallest102 · chance 94.6
4th smallest34 · chance 32.9
5th smallest2 · chance 3.8

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 29.3 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

3 18 39 6 14 35

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 38 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 15 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 39. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 15 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2015-09-28	5	2nd	3 15 20 29 30
2015-09-23	4	5th	1 3 7 12 15
2015-09-19	3	1st	15 16 27 31 36
2015-09-16	2	1st	15 21

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 15 is drawn with probability 5/39 tonight whatever it did last week.

2015-03-07	10	3rd	11 12 15 20 38
2015-02-25	4	2nd	7 15 19 26 38
2015-02-21	2	3rd	12 14 15 18 22
2015-02-19	4	2nd	11 15 18 20 35
2015-02-15	13	2nd	1 15 21 29 31
2015-02-02	30	3rd	6 8 15 23 39
2015-01-03	14	1st	15 24 25 32 35
2014-12-20	1	2nd	8 15 19 22 39
2014-12-19	19	3rd	9 14 15 16 38
2014-11-30	3	1st	15 16 22 23 30
2014-11-27	4	2nd	7 15 30 32 35
2014-11-23	11	2nd	11 15 16 25 39
2014-11-12	2	4th	5 6 7 15 36
2014-11-10	6	2nd	5 15 20 23 35
2014-11-04	23	2nd	7 15 16 19 29
2014-10-12	5	4th	3 11 13 15 24
2014-10-07	15	4th	2 9 11 15 33
2014-09-22	10	4th	1 3 11 15 31
2014-09-12	3	3rd	3 10 15 25 39
2014-09-09	4	2nd	9 15 21 25 30
2014-09-05	8	1st	15 19 22 24 38
2014-08-28	1	4th	1 6 8 15 24
2014-08-27	1	1st	15 20 29 38 39
2014-08-26	1	3rd	4 11 15 18 39
2014-08-25	4	3rd	11 12 15 17 38
2014-08-21	2	1st	15 20 21 30 36
2014-08-19	7	2nd	1 15 18 23 26
2014-08-12	1	2nd	9 15 23 24 28
2014-08-11	25	2nd	1 15 22 27 30
2014-07-17	1	1st	15 17 26 27 39
2014-07-16	8	3rd	9 11 15 25 34
2014-07-08	1	2nd	14 15 18 19 20
2014-07-07	1	1st	15 17 24 36 39
2014-07-06	1	2nd	6 15 18 30 32
2014-07-05	7	3rd	2 10 15 17 28
2014-06-28	5	4th	3 8 13 15 17
2014-06-23	3	4th	3 7 12 15 22
2014-06-20	3	3rd	4 10 15 25 34
2014-06-17	1	3rd	3 13 15 17 39
2014-06-16	2	3rd	9 14 15 34 36
2014-06-14	2	2nd	4 15 17 18 20
2014-06-12	16	3rd	3 12 15 22 34
2014-05-27	1	3rd	5 14 15 26 35
2014-05-26	1	4th	4 6 7 15 33
2014-05-25	5	4th	2 3 14 15 33
2014-05-20	24	4th	3 5 8 15 33
2014-04-26	2	2nd	9 15 17 25 38
2014-04-24	4	1st	15 21 25 35 36
2014-04-20	6	3rd	5 12 15 23 34
2014-04-14	10	3rd	4 10 15 19 33
2014-04-04	12	3rd	1 11 15 21 27
2014-03-23	9	4th	1 10 11 15 23
2014-03-14	1	1st	15 23 25 33 35
2014-03-13	2	3rd	2 9 15 25 31
2014-03-11	1	3rd	1 12 15 21 29
2014-03-10	4	2nd	10 15 27 29 33
2014-03-06	8	1st	15 20 27 30 39
2014-02-26	29	4th	4 7 14 15 32
2014-01-28	6	2nd	6 15 19 27 36
2014-01-22	10	3rd	3 7 15 25 35
2014-01-12	6	3rd	9 11 15 25 35
2014-01-06	3	2nd	13 15 24 27 37
2014-01-03	3	2nd	11 15 25 26 31
2013-12-31	1	3rd	2 6 15 19 31
2013-12-30	2	3rd	2 14 15 23 31
2013-12-28	5	1st	15 16 17 26 37
2013-12-23	6	3rd	9 10 15 36 37
2013-12-17	1	2nd	10 15 22 27 38
2013-12-16	11	4th	8 9 13 15 20
2013-12-05	7	3rd	4 14 15 33 38
2013-11-28	1	2nd	13 15 25 27 38
2013-11-27	16	2nd	10 15 20 30 34
2013-11-11	5	3rd	2 7 15 25 39
2013-11-06	9	4th	1 7 14 15 36
2013-10-28	1	2nd	7 15 20 22 39
2013-10-27	5	3rd	9 10 15 30 35
2013-10-22	1	4th	1 7 14 15 29
2013-10-21	8	3rd	3 5 15 17 29
2013-10-13	8	4th	3 6 7 15 23
2013-10-05	23	3rd	8 14 15 20 30
2013-09-12	5	3rd	3 9 15 28 39
2013-09-07	9	3rd	9 11 15 23 25
2013-08-29	15	3rd	8 11 15 19 38
2013-08-14	5	2nd	11 15 26 34 38
2013-08-09	6	1st	15 18 23 31 34
2013-08-03	4	2nd	6 15 28 29 31
2013-07-30	5	2nd	14 15 17 22 30
2013-07-25	1	1st	15 26 29 35 39
2013-07-24	7	3rd	5 14 15 19 33
2013-07-17	5	4th	2 11 13 15 27
2013-07-12	11	3rd	9 10 15 17 22
2013-07-01	6	2nd	13 15 22 27 37
2013-06-25	1	2nd	12 15 24 25 35
2013-06-24	11	2nd	2 15 26 33 37
2013-06-13	11	4th	10 12 14 15 37
2013-06-02	3	1st	15 18 22 25 34
2013-05-30	9	3rd	1 14 15 30 39
2013-05-21	2	3rd	2 12 15 32 33
2013-05-19	13	1st	15 17 18 28 35
2013-05-06	18	2nd	10 15 24 36 38
2013-04-18	3	2nd	10 15 26 34 39
2013-04-15	20	1st	15 30 32 33 34
2013-03-26	13	5th	3 7 13 14 15
2013-03-13	11	3rd	1 7 15 18 19
2013-03-02	2	4th	3 6 12 15 18
2013-02-28	28	2nd	6 15 18 21 33
2013-01-31	9	2nd	5 15 16 33 35
2013-01-22	7	2nd	3 15 17 21 29
2013-01-15	2	3rd	3 10 15 17 37
2013-01-13	6	3rd	6 11 15 18 36
2013-01-07	15	2nd	11 15 24 27 28
2012-12-23	13	1st	15 22 29 34 37
2012-12-10	2	2nd	10 15 16 26 34
2012-12-08	1	2nd	3 15 20 23 28
2012-12-07	6	1st	15 17 22 27 36
2012-12-01	22	2nd	11 15 18 29 30
2012-11-09	16	3rd	10 12 15 28 39
2012-10-24	14	2nd	1 15 18 20 26
2012-10-10	21	1st	15 31 34 36 38
2012-09-19	3	3rd	10 12 15 27 34
2012-09-16	7	2nd	6 15 22 33 36
2012-09-09	12	3rd	3 8 15 27 30
2012-08-28	6	4th	1 7 11 15 35
2012-08-22	33	1st	15 26 28 30 39
2012-07-20	4	1st	15 23 30 33 36
2012-07-16	13	3rd	2 3 15 24 30
2012-07-03	2	1st	15 19 27 28 38
2012-07-01	13	2nd	9 15 16 19 33
2012-06-18	1	2nd	14 15 18 32 36
2012-06-17	1	3rd	6 14 15 30 32
2012-06-16	17	2nd	8 15 23 26 27
2012-05-30	9	3rd	8 14 15 25 34
2012-05-21	11	3rd	2 8 15 17 23
2012-05-10	8	3rd	9 12 15 19 31
2012-05-02	5	3rd	4 11 15 19 34
2012-04-27	2	3rd	3 4 15 24 36
2012-04-25	1	3rd	2 13 15 26 31
2012-04-24	13	2nd	12 15 19 22 23
2012-04-11	4	3rd	3 4 15 32 38
2012-04-07	12	3rd	4 10 15 21 37
2012-03-26	8	3rd	3 12 15 27 28
2012-03-18	6	3rd	1 14 15 27 35
2012-03-12	1	1st	15 23 28 38 39
2012-03-11	1	2nd	12 15 16 33 35
2012-03-10	8	2nd	3 15 25 36 39
2012-03-02	10	3rd	4 12 15 16 32
2012-02-21	19	3rd	11 12 15 17 27
2012-02-02	1	1st	15 20 25 30 39
2012-02-01	3	1st	15 19 29 38 39
2012-01-29	5	2nd	10 15 27 35 36
2012-01-24	8	3rd	4 14 15 17 33
2012-01-16	3	4th	2 8 14 15 30
2012-01-13	7	3rd	3 11 15 22 37
2012-01-06	2	4th	1 5 12 15 29
2012-01-04	3	1st	15 17 18 19 29
2012-01-01	4	2nd	6 15 18 21 33
2011-12-28	1	3rd	13 14 15 21 29
2011-12-27	9	2nd	9 15 26 36 39
2011-12-18	3	3rd	6 11 15 25 31
2011-12-15	1	2nd	9 15 16 18 24
2011-12-14	4	3rd	4 6 15 24 25
2011-12-10	19	3rd	5 6 15 21 31
2011-11-21	3	3rd	5 6 15 25 29
2011-11-18	17	3rd	5 9 15 25 35
2011-11-01	20	3rd	5 11 15 34 35
2011-10-12	19	2nd	5 15 18 19 33
2011-09-23	2	2nd	5 15 16 27 36
2011-09-21	4	2nd	13 15 17 18 28
2011-09-17	6	3rd	2 12 15 33 38
2011-09-11	4	3rd	10 13 15 19 22
2011-09-07	13	3rd	10 14 15 23 33
2011-08-24	3	3rd	1 2 15 28 32
2011-08-21	1	1st	15 17 25 26 29
2011-08-20	18	3rd	1 8 15 16 31
2011-07-31	10	2nd	3 15 20 24 28
2011-07-21	21	2nd	2 15 16 34 36
2011-06-30	3	3rd	5 14 15 17 30
2011-06-27	2	2nd	14 15 23 24 34
2011-06-25	1	3rd	6 11 15 18 34
2011-06-24	8	4th	6 12 14 15 33
2011-06-16	2	2nd	7 15 22 28 29
2011-06-14	2	1st	15 17 21 30 31
2011-06-12	2	3rd	4 13 15 32 34
2011-06-10	11	2nd	7 15 29 31 39
2011-05-30	10	3rd	2 10 15 30 31
2011-05-20	8	2nd	5 15 19 31 32
2011-05-12	9	2nd	1 15 18 31 36
2011-05-03	10	3rd	5 10 15 16 27
2011-04-23	26	3rd	5 6 15 21 38
2011-03-27	8	2nd	3 15 27 32 39
2011-03-19	1	3rd	4 5 15 17 30
2011-03-18	4	4th	1 7 13 15 29
2011-03-14	9	3rd	6 7 15 18 25
2011-03-05	18	3rd	6 8 15 18 35
2011-02-15	24	1st	15 21 29 31 32
2011-01-22	3	2nd	14 15 20 24 37
2011-01-19	15	2nd	12 15 33 35 36
2011-01-04	2	1st	15 20 22 34 37
2011-01-02	9	2nd	7 15 18 30 32
2010-12-24	3	4th	3 6 9 15 27
2010-12-21	5	2nd	11 15 17 28 39
2010-12-16	1	2nd	12 15 26 28 29
2010-12-15	4	2nd	5 15 18 20 26
2010-12-11	14	2nd	8 15 19 29 37
2010-11-27	11	2nd	7 15 18 33 34
2010-11-16	12	1st	15 20 28 29 34
2010-11-04	10	3rd	1 13 15 25 32
2010-10-25	6	2nd	10 15 18 20 31
2010-10-19	19	2nd	14 15 18 24 29
2010-09-30	10	1st	15 26 31 35 39
2010-09-20	3	4th	7 8 12 15 37
2010-09-17	6	3rd	2 11 15 16 17
2010-09-11	5	3rd	7 14 15 18 31
2010-09-06	1	2nd	10 15 22 24 38
2010-09-05	1	2nd	7 15 26 29 33
2010-09-04	4	3rd	6 10 15 22 35
2010-08-31	11	4th	3 4 10 15 21
2010-08-20	3	3rd	4 5 15 27 32
2010-08-17	9	3rd	7 10 15 19 28
2010-08-08	1	2nd	9 15 18 23 27
2010-08-07	5	3rd	1 11 15 18 25
2010-08-02	18	2nd	9 15 19 20 33
2010-07-15	6	2nd	10 15 18 19 35
2010-07-09	2	2nd	2 15 24 28 38
2010-07-07	4	1st	15 25 26 34 38
2010-07-03	17	2nd	3 15 21 27 28
2010-06-16	1	1st	15 17 33 35 39
2010-06-15	4	2nd	12 15 23 29 35
2010-06-11	4	2nd	1 15 25 27 37
2010-06-07	17	3rd	6 12 15 17 25
2010-05-21	3	1st	15 16 24 28 38
2010-05-18	17	3rd	6 9 15 21 28
2010-05-01	2	2nd	4 15 26 28 35
2010-04-29	6	3rd	11 14 15 26 32
2010-04-23	5	2nd	13 15 30 34 39
2010-04-18	3	3rd	4 13 15 20 26
2010-04-15	3	4th	5 7 11 15 39
2010-04-12	9	2nd	4 15 19 21 39
2010-04-03	1	2nd	13 15 18 24 29
2010-04-02	10	3rd	2 8 15 22 35
2010-03-23	6	3rd	8 9 15 28 35
2010-03-17	3	3rd	2 3 15 17 20
2010-03-14	1	3rd	5 13 15 28 35
2010-03-13	3	2nd	13 15 23 33 39
2010-03-10	6	2nd	8 15 32 37 38
2010-03-04	14	2nd	13 15 17 23 33
2010-02-18	1	2nd	10 15 16 33 34
2010-02-17	3	2nd	2 15 20 33 37
2010-02-14	10	2nd	6 15 19 26 38
2010-02-04	1	3rd	7 8 15 16 39
2010-02-03	2	4th	3 4 6 15 31
2010-02-01	23	2nd	4 15 16 20 22
2010-01-09	3	4th	5 6 8 15 31
2010-01-06	—	2nd	13 15 16 31 35