Number 45

In Mega Millions under the 5/50 + 1/25 · Sep 1996 – Jan 1999 rules — 172 draws, 5 from 1–50 (an earlier era).

14times drawn · chance expected 17 −0.81σ

17draws waiting · a wait this long: 19% for any number

10.5average wait between appearances · chance says 10.0

32longest completed wait · 40% chance of one at least that long

45 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 14 times in 172 draws against 17.2 expected, −0.81σ. Each draw is independent: after 17 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 45, draw by draw

Drawn 14 times in 172 draws · average wait 10.5 draws · longest completed wait 32 · waiting 17 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 45 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest0 · chance 0.0
2nd smallest0 · chance 0.0
3rd smallest0 · chance 0.6
4th smallest2 · chance 4.4
5th smallest12 · chance 9.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.1 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

1 21 22 31 35 43

Never drawn alongside 13 of the other 49 numbers; chance expects about 16 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 45 is picked about 0.86× as often as an indifferent choice — 34th most popular of 50. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers above 31 ×0.86

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 45 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
1998-11-13	15	5th	5 7 18 26 45
1998-09-22	7	5th	1 37 43 44 45
1998-08-28	32	5th	1 21 28 43 45
1998-05-08	3	5th	25 33

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 45 is drawn with probability 5/50 tonight whatever it did last week.