Number 46

In Mega Millions under the 5/50 + 1/25 · Sep 1996 – Jan 1999 rules — 172 draws, 5 from 1–50 (an earlier era).

18times drawn · chance expected 17 +0.20σ

0draws waiting — it came up last time

9.7average wait between appearances · chance says 10.0

37longest completed wait · 32% chance of one at least that long

46 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 18 times in 172 draws against 17.2 expected, +0.20σ. Each draw is independent: after 0 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 46, draw by draw

Drawn 18 times in 172 draws · average wait 9.7 draws · longest completed wait 37 · drawn in the most recent draw

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 46 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest0 · chance 0.0
2nd smallest0 · chance 0.0
3rd smallest1 · chance 0.5
4th smallest5 · chance 4.8
5th smallest12 · chance 12.7

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.5 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

32 36 3 7 11 23

Never drawn alongside 10 of the other 49 numbers; chance expects about 11 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 46 is picked about 0.86× as often as an indifferent choice — 34th most popular of 50. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers above 31 ×0.86

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 46 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
1999-01-12	19	5th	5 7 9 20 46
1998-11-06	2	4th	7 21 29 46 48
1998-10-30	10	5th	12 16 22 38 46
1998-09-25	14	4th	20 23

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 46 is drawn with probability 5/50 tonight whatever it did last week.