Number 22

In Mega Millions under the 5/50 + 1/25 · Sep 1996 – Jan 1999 rules — 172 draws, 5 from 1–50 (an earlier era).

16times drawn · chance expected 17 −0.30σ

21draws waiting · a wait this long: 12% for any number

8.5average wait between appearances · chance says 10.0

29longest completed wait · 55% chance of one at least that long

22 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 16 times in 172 draws against 17.2 expected, −0.30σ. Each draw is independent: after 21 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 22, draw by draw

Drawn 16 times in 172 draws · average wait 8.5 draws · longest completed wait 29 · waiting 21 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 22 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest1 · chance 1.5
2nd smallest2 · chance 5.2
3rd smallest7 · chance 6.0
4th smallest4 · chance 2.8
5th smallest2 · chance 0.5

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.3 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

35 6 8 10 13 15

Never drawn alongside 10 of the other 49 numbers; chance expects about 13 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 22 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 50. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 22 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
1998-10-30	3	3rd	12 16 22 38 46
1998-10-20	4	4th	6 9 10 22 28
1998-10-06	5	5th	1 3 13 15 22
1998-09-18	10	2nd	15 22

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 22 is drawn with probability 5/50 tonight whatever it did last week.