Number 40

In Mega Millions under the 5/50 + 1/25 · Sep 1996 – Jan 1999 rules — 172 draws, 5 from 1–50 (an earlier era).

13times drawn · chance expected 17 −1.07σ

15draws waiting · a wait this long: 23% for any number

12.6average wait between appearances · chance says 10.0

32longest completed wait · 37% chance of one at least that long

40 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 13 times in 172 draws against 17.2 expected, −1.07σ. Each draw is independent: after 15 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 40, draw by draw

Drawn 13 times in 172 draws · average wait 12.6 draws · longest completed wait 32 · waiting 15 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 40 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest0 · chance 0.0
2nd smallest1 · chance 0.3
3rd smallest2 · chance 2.0
4th smallest6 · chance 5.6
5th smallest4 · chance 5.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.1 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

2 35 50 23 25 49

Never drawn alongside 20 of the other 49 numbers; chance expects about 17 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 40 is picked about 0.90× as often as an indifferent choice — 32nd most popular of 50. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers above 31 ×0.86
Round numbers (multiples of 10) ×1.05

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 40 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
1998-11-20	18	2nd	20 40 48 49 50
1998-09-18	13	4th	15 22 23 40 50
1998-08-04	25	5th	3 4 6 26 40
1998-05-08	8	4th	25 33

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 40 is drawn with probability 5/50 tonight whatever it did last week.