In Mega Millions under the 5/70 + 1/25 · Oct 2017 – Apr 2025 rules — 776 draws, 5 from 1–70 (an earlier era).
66times drawn · chance expected 55 +1.47σ
12draws waiting · a wait this long: 44% for any number
11.6average wait between appearances · chance says 14.0
47longest completed wait · 89% chance of one at least that long
46 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 66 times in 776 draws against 55.4 expected, +1.47σ. Each draw is independent: after 12 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
46
Number 46, draw by draw
Drawn 66 times in 776 draws · average wait 11.6 draws · longest completed wait 47 · waiting 12 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 46 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Never drawn alongside 2 of the other 69 numbers; chance expects about 2 such strangers by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 46 is picked about 0.86× as often as an indifferent choice — 36th most popular of 70. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 46 is drawn with probability 5/70 tonight whatever it did last week.