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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Toto Auswahlwette · every number
In Toto Auswahlwette under the 6/45 + 1/45 · since Sep 2024 rules — 109 draws, 6 from 1–45.
Drawn 14 times in 109 draws against 14.5 expected, −0.15σ. Each draw is independent: after 4 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday. It has also come out as the bonus ball 4 times, counted separately.
Drawn 14 times in 109 draws · average wait 7.6 draws · longest completed wait 18 · waiting 4 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 16 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.6 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 6 of the other 44 numbers; chance expects about 9 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 16 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 45. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 16 →
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | 2 | 2nd | 111619293139 |
| 2026-09-13 | 1 | 3rd | 41516233437 |
| 2026-09-06 | 16 | 3rd | 141516203036 |
| 2026-05-17 | 8 | 3rd | 2316222528 |
| 2026-03-22 | 18 | 4th | 349162141 |
| 2025-11-16 | 8 | 3rd | 121416212730 |
| 2025-09-21 | 8 | 5th | 11213151632 |
| 2025-07-27 | 1 | 2nd | 11624264143 |
| 2025-07-20 | 4 | 3rd | 1716233545 |
| 2025-06-22 | 10 | 4th | 31113162840 |
| 2025-04-13 | 18 | 2nd | 11620343538 |
| 2024-12-08 | 2 | 3rd | 41116202227 |
| 2024-11-24 | 3 | 2nd | 91624293042 |
| 2024-11-03 | — | 5th | 51012131620 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 16 is drawn with probability 6/45 tonight whatever it did last week.