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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Toto Auswahlwette · every number
In Toto Auswahlwette under the 6/45 + 1/45 · since Sep 2024 rules — 109 draws, 6 from 1–45.
Drawn 14 times in 109 draws against 14.5 expected, −0.15σ. Each draw is independent: after 12 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday. It has also come out as the bonus ball 4 times, counted separately.
Drawn 14 times in 109 draws · average wait 6.9 draws · longest completed wait 13 · waiting 12 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 38 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.6 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 7 of the other 44 numbers; chance expects about 9 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 38 is picked about 0.86× as often as an indifferent choice — 33rd most popular of 45. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 38 →
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | 1 | 4th | 1419384143 |
| 2026-07-26 | 1 | 5th | 21214153845 |
| 2026-07-19 | 8 | 4th | 122337383944 |
| 2026-05-24 | 13 | 6th | 5810172238 |
| 2026-02-22 | 7 | 6th | 158142738 |
| 2026-01-04 | 2 | 6th | 15791438 |
| 2025-12-21 | 1 | 6th | 61114233238 |
| 2025-12-14 | 9 | 6th | 179202438 |
| 2025-10-12 | 7 | 5th | 142629323842 |
| 2025-08-24 | 13 | 6th | 11921243438 |
| 2025-05-25 | 6 | 6th | 3913203638 |
| 2025-04-13 | 10 | 6th | 11620343538 |
| 2025-02-02 | 12 | 6th | 5710243438 |
| 2024-11-10 | — | 6th | 4921293438 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 38 is drawn with probability 6/45 tonight whatever it did last week.