In Toto Auswahlwette under the 6/45 + 1/45 · since Sep 2024 rules — 109 draws, 6 from 1–45.
16times drawn · chance expected 15 +0.41σ
1draws waiting · a wait this long: >99% for any number
7.1average wait between appearances · chance says 7.5
26longest completed wait · 35% chance of one at least that long
4 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 16 times in 109 draws against 14.5 expected, +0.41σ. Each draw is independent: after 1 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday. It has also come out as the bonus ball 1 time, counted separately.
4
Number 4, draw by draw
Drawn 16 times in 109 draws · average wait 7.1 draws · longest completed wait 26 · waiting 1 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Never drawn alongside 4 of the other 44 numbers; chance expects about 7 such strangers by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 45. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 6/45 tonight whatever it did last week.