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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Toto Auswahlwette · every number

1

Number 1

In Toto Auswahlwette under the 6/45 + 1/45 · since Sep 2024 rules — 109 draws, 6 from 1–45.

28times drawn · chance expected 15 +3.79σ
2draws waiting · a wait this long: 87% for any number
3.9average wait between appearances · chance says 7.5
11longest completed wait · >99% chance of one at least that long
1 looks unusual on its own — and unremarkable among 45 numbers

Drawn 28 times in 109 draws against 14.5 expected, +3.79σ. Testing all 45 numbers at once means about 0.5 should look this way by luck alone, so the threshold tightens to 2.2e-4 and this does not pass it. It has also come out as the bonus ball 1 time, counted separately.

1

Number 1, draw by draw

Drawn 28 times in 109 draws · average wait 3.9 draws · longest completed wait 11 · waiting 2 draws now

1 draws: 2024-09-29 to 2024-10-068 draws: 2024-10-06 to 2024-12-018 draws: 2024-12-01 to 2025-01-264 draws: 2025-01-26 to 2025-02-234 draws: 2025-02-23 to 2025-03-233 draws: 2025-03-23 to 2025-04-131 draws: 2025-04-13 to 2025-04-202 draws: 2025-04-20 to 2025-05-045 draws: 2025-05-04 to 2025-06-086 draws: 2025-06-08 to 2025-07-201 draws: 2025-07-20 to 2025-07-274 draws: 2025-07-27 to 2025-08-244 draws: 2025-08-24 to 2025-09-219 draws: 2025-09-21 to 2025-11-233 draws: 2025-11-23 to 2025-12-143 draws: 2025-12-14 to 2026-01-044 draws: 2026-01-04 to 2026-02-011 draws: 2026-02-01 to 2026-02-082 draws: 2026-02-08 to 2026-02-221 draws: 2026-02-22 to 2026-03-011 draws: 2026-03-01 to 2026-03-081 draws: 2026-03-08 to 2026-03-1511 draws: 2026-03-15 to 2026-05-312 draws: 2026-05-31 to 2026-06-143 draws: 2026-06-14 to 2026-07-054 draws: 2026-07-05 to 2026-08-0210 draws: 2026-08-02 to 2026-10-11Still waiting — at least 2 draws since 2026-10-112024-09-292024-10-062024-12-012025-01-262025-02-232025-03-232025-04-132025-04-202025-05-042025-06-082025-07-202025-07-272025-08-242025-09-212025-11-232025-12-142026-01-042026-02-012026-02-082026-02-222026-03-012026-03-082026-03-152026-05-312026-06-142026-07-052026-08-022026-10-112024-09-292026-10-25

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

1 draws: 7 times2 draws: 3 times3 draws: 4 times4 draws: 6 times5 draws: 1 time6 draws: 1 time7 draws: 0 times8 draws: 2 times9 draws: 1 time10 draws: 1 time11 draws: 1 time12 draws: 0 times13 draws: 0 times14 draws: 0 times15 draws: 0 times16 draws: 0 times17 draws: 0 times18 draws: 0 times19 draws: 0 times20 draws: 0 times21 draws: 0 times22 draws: 0 times23 draws: 0 times24 draws: 0 timesits own waitsdraws between appearances

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 1 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

  • 1st smallest28 · chance 28.0
  • 2nd smallest0 · chance 0.0
  • 3rd smallest0 · chance 0.0
  • 4th smallest0 · chance 0.0
  • 5th smallest0 · chance 0.0
  • 6th smallest0 · chance 0.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 3.2 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

291014385

Never drawn alongside 5 of the other 44 numbers; chance expects about 2 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 1 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 45. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

  • Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
  • Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 1 →

Every draw it appeared in

DateWaitPositionThe draw
2026-10-11101st1915192135
2026-08-0241st1419384143
2026-07-0531st1220323943
2026-06-1421st126124043
2026-05-31111st1510192330
2026-03-1511st14591114
2026-03-0811st1210132431
2026-03-0111st1928303445
2026-02-2221st158142738
2026-02-0811st11015234445
2026-02-0141st11120273136
2026-01-0431st15791438
2025-12-1431st179202438
2025-11-2391st11421233237
2025-09-2141st11213151632
2025-08-2441st11921243438
2025-07-2711st11624264143
2025-07-2061st1716233545
2025-06-0851st136122631
2025-05-0421st12371015
2025-04-2011st156102530
2025-04-1331st11620343538
2025-03-2341st1219313334
2025-02-2341st16891439
The other 4 appearances
2025-01-2681st127112023
2024-12-0181st1311123134
2024-10-0611st12891136
2024-09-29—1st1
Lowest in the poolEvery numbernumber 2 →
What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 1 is drawn with probability 6/45 tonight whatever it did last week.

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