In Toto Auswahlwette under the 6/45 + 1/45 · since Sep 2024 rules — 109 draws, 6 from 1–45.
16times drawn · chance expected 15 +0.41σ
2draws waiting · a wait this long: 87% for any number
6.9average wait between appearances · chance says 7.5
18longest completed wait · 75% chance of one at least that long
15 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 16 times in 109 draws against 14.5 expected, +0.41σ. Each draw is independent: after 2 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday. It has also come out as the bonus ball 3 times, counted separately.
15
Number 15, draw by draw
Drawn 16 times in 109 draws · average wait 6.9 draws · longest completed wait 18 · waiting 2 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 15 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Never drawn alongside 7 of the other 44 numbers; chance expects about 7 such strangers by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 15 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 45. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 15 is drawn with probability 6/45 tonight whatever it did last week.