Number 10

In El Gordo de la Primitiva under the 5/54 + 1/9 · since Jan 2010 rules — 868 draws, 5 from 1–54.

78times drawn · chance expected 80 −0.28σ

20draws waiting · a wait this long: 16% for any number

10.8average wait between appearances · chance says 10.8

71longest completed wait · 8% chance of one at least that long

10 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 78 times in 868 draws against 80.4 expected, −0.28σ. Each draw is independent: after 20 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 10, draw by draw

Drawn 78 times in 868 draws · average wait 10.8 draws · longest completed wait 71 · waiting 20 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 10 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest42 · chance 36.2
2nd smallest28 · chance 31.8
3rd smallest7 · chance 9.1
4th smallest1 · chance 1.0
5th smallest0 · chance 0.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 5.9 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

37 19 26 31 38 51

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 53 numbers; chance expected about 0.1 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 10 is picked about 1.41× as often as an indifferent choice — 5th most popular of 54. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10
Round numbers (multiples of 10) ×1.05

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 10 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2026-06-07	3	1st	10 19 29 37 54
2026-05-17	4	3rd	2 4 10 27 50
2026-04-19	21	2nd	2 10 37 39 47
2025-11-23	5	1st	10 22

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 10 is drawn with probability 5/54 tonight whatever it did last week.

2021-01-17	19	3rd	7 8 10 17 24
2020-09-06	4	2nd	8 10 26 40 43
2020-08-09	4	1st	10 34 37 42 49
2020-07-12	3	1st	10 23 27 28 46
2020-06-21	2	1st	10 14 20 25 37
2020-06-07	4	2nd	2 10 25 34 54
2020-03-01	39	3rd	3 8 10 20 26
2019-06-02	3	1st	10 14 31 42 43
2019-05-12	71	2nd	2 10 11 49 54
2017-12-31	8	1st	10 12 26 31 52
2017-11-05	4	2nd	2 10 17 22 39
2017-10-08	3	1st	10 13 23 37 54
2017-09-17	21	1st	10 23 36 38 41
2017-04-23	11	4th	4 5 7 10 42
2017-02-05	5	3rd	7 9 10 13 37
2017-01-01	4	2nd	6 10 32 45 51
2016-12-04	18	2nd	5 10 27 43 52
2016-07-31	3	2nd	6 10 13 20 46
2016-07-10	12	2nd	6 10 18 26 42
2016-04-17	1	2nd	9 10 15 36 47
2016-04-10	4	1st	10 11 24 31 50
2016-03-13	7	1st	10 12 22 24 53
2016-01-24	3	2nd	3 10 19 27 31
2016-01-03	9	2nd	7 10 32 34 35
2015-11-01	1	2nd	6 10 11 21 31
2015-10-25	1	1st	10 18 26 32 34
2015-10-18	8	2nd	7 10 19 26 32
2015-08-23	5	1st	10 13 21 38 42
2015-07-19	4	1st	10 15 25 28 40
2015-06-21	24	1st	10 11 21 25 48
2015-01-04	4	1st	10 22 28 31 54
2014-12-07	4	1st	10 22 38 41 53
2014-11-09	8	3rd	2 4 10 33 46
2014-09-14	1	2nd	9 10 13 24 36
2014-09-07	1	1st	10 19 36 39 48
2014-08-31	18	2nd	8 10 14 36 48
2014-04-27	35	2nd	4 10 23 31 51
2013-08-25	12	3rd	4 8 10 20 51
2013-06-02	21	1st	10 13 19 35 36
2013-01-06	4	1st	10 38 47 48 53
2012-12-09	3	1st	10 35 37 41 49
2012-11-18	1	1st	10 22 39 49 53
2012-11-11	1	1st	10 28 39 44 49
2012-11-04	39	1st	10 27 32 38 46
2012-02-05	5	2nd	1 10 26 33 54
2012-01-01	3	1st	10 14 15 27 34
2011-12-11	20	1st	10 17 29 41 52
2011-07-24	15	1st	10 14 37 39 51
2011-04-10	3	1st	10 23 29 39 52
2011-03-20	13	1st	10 15 17 32 35
2010-12-19	4	2nd	9 10 12 14 43
2010-11-21	25	1st	10 15 18 33 54
2010-05-30	6	2nd	4 10 13 32 36
2010-04-18	—	2nd	5 10 11 28 37