Number 14

In Lotto under the 6/52 · Jan 2010 – Oct 2012 rules — 442 draws, 6 from 1–52 (an earlier era).

50times drawn · chance expected 51 −0.15σ

7draws waiting · a wait this long: 48% for any number

8.9average wait between appearances · chance says 8.7

32longest completed wait · 67% chance of one at least that long

14 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 50 times in 442 draws against 51.0 expected, −0.15σ. Each draw is independent: after 7 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 14, draw by draw

Drawn 50 times in 442 draws · average wait 8.9 draws · longest completed wait 32 · waiting 7 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 14 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest9 · chance 10.7
2nd smallest19 · chance 20.4
3rd smallest20 · chance 14.0
4th smallest1 · chance 4.3
5th smallest1 · chance 0.6
6th smallest0 · chance 0.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 4.9 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

34 2 22 12 19 25

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 51 numbers; chance expected about 0.4 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 14 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 52. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 14 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2012-10-13	3	2nd	8 14 32 34 40 50
2012-10-06	12	1st	14 22 32 44 46 51
2012-09-08	9	3rd	5 6 14 25 40 52
2012-08-18

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 14 is drawn with probability 6/52 tonight whatever it did last week.

2011-09-12	20	1st	14 24 26 30 39 51
2011-07-27	2	2nd	13 14 32 35 39 44
2011-07-23	7	2nd	4 14 17 20 24 34
2011-07-06	4	2nd	2 14 23 39 43 51
2011-06-27	9	2nd	11 14 19 31 42 45
2011-06-06	15	1st	14 22 27 42 43 51
2011-05-02	3	2nd	7 14 29 34 36 49
2011-04-25	10	3rd	6 13 14 25 32 45
2011-04-02	14	4th	2 5 12 14 21 47
2011-02-28	1	3rd	3 12 14 23 30 36
2011-02-26	32	2nd	9 14 20 34 47 51
2010-12-13	2	1st	14 17 19 22 34 46
2010-12-08	11	3rd	8 10 14 16 34 49
2010-11-13	21	3rd	3 6 14 15 35 52
2010-09-25	1	3rd	12 13 14 22 44 45
2010-09-22	1	2nd	4 14 16 32 33 52
2010-09-20	4	2nd	3 14 28 35 43 47
2010-09-11	2	3rd	2 13 14 33 42 51
2010-09-06	15	1st	14 38 39 40 43 50
2010-08-02	10	2nd	5 14 17 19 21 36
2010-07-10	16	1st	14 19 22 31 34 52
2010-06-02	28	2nd	2 14 17 19 39 46
2010-03-29	6	3rd	4 7 14 26 35 52
2010-03-15	8	2nd	3 14 17 18 25 26
2010-02-24	23	1st	14 21 22 28 30 45
2010-01-02	—	3rd	2 7 14 18 23 34