Number 18

In Lotto under the 6/52 · Jan 2010 – Oct 2012 rules — 442 draws, 6 from 1–52 (an earlier era).

61times drawn · chance expected 51 +1.49σ

20draws waiting · a wait this long: 10% for any number

7.0average wait between appearances · chance says 8.7

23longest completed wait · 98% chance of one at least that long

18 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 61 times in 442 draws against 51.0 expected, +1.49σ. Each draw is independent: after 20 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 18, draw by draw

Drawn 61 times in 442 draws · average wait 7.0 draws · longest completed wait 23 · waiting 20 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 18 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest7 · chance 7.2
2nd smallest19 · chance 20.5
3rd smallest19 · chance 21.1
4th smallest12 · chance 9.9
5th smallest3 · chance 2.1
6th smallest1 · chance 0.2

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 6.0 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

37 5 7 8 17 27

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 51 numbers; chance expected about 0.1 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 18 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 52. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 18 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2012-09-12	5	1st	18 27 28 34 40 46
2012-09-01	8	4th	1 3 4 18 35 37
2012-08-13	8	2nd	9 18 20 41 45 50
2012-07-25

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 18 is drawn with probability 6/52 tonight whatever it did last week.

2011-07-25	9	2nd	15 18 27 37 46 50
2011-07-04	1	4th	6 13 16 18 29 45
2011-07-02	19	2nd	7 18 30 42 48 50
2011-05-18	3	2nd	12 18 23 33 36 50
2011-05-11	2	2nd	15 18 25 27 38 47
2011-05-07	16	2nd	1 18 27 43 46 51
2011-03-30	1	2nd	3 18 34 36 40 51
2011-03-28	6	3rd	4 7 18 29 36 49
2011-03-14	3	2nd	13 18 19 22 25 44
2011-03-07	1	3rd	10 13 18 22 25 42
2011-03-05	6	3rd	8 17 18 23 39 48
2011-02-19	10	1st	18 20 35 41 42 47
2011-01-26	16	2nd	7 18 23 36 41 51
2010-12-20	2	1st	18 20 37 44 47 48
2010-12-15	6	3rd	5 15 18 19 23 45
2010-12-01	5	4th	2 15 17 18 20 38
2010-11-20	14	2nd	11 18 33 37 45 51
2010-10-18	19	3rd	7 12 18 19 27 29
2010-09-04	5	2nd	13 18 25 36 42 44
2010-08-23	1	3rd	5 16 18 31 43 52
2010-08-21	4	5th	6 8 11 13 18 46
2010-08-11	3	1st	18 23 33 35 41 43
2010-08-04	10	5th	1 5 6 8 18 51
2010-07-12	4	1st	18 21 22 30 51 52
2010-07-03	2	4th	7 9 17 18 21 33
2010-06-28	2	4th	3 12 16 18 39 41
2010-06-23	1	3rd	2 7 18 37 38 46
2010-06-21	17	2nd	5 18 21 28 47 51
2010-05-12	3	3rd	8 15 18 37 39 45
2010-05-05	7	3rd	1 4 18 27 30 40
2010-04-19	7	2nd	4 18 30 33 35 38
2010-04-03	8	5th	1 2 5 11 18 52
2010-03-15	12	4th	3 14 17 18 25 26
2010-02-15	3	4th	8 16 17 18 39 40
2010-02-08	12	4th	1 8 13 18 32 36
2010-01-11	4	2nd	16 18 29 30 34 43
2010-01-02	—	4th	2 7 14 18 23 34