Number 4

In Cash 5 under the 5/41 · Oct 2020 – Oct 2023 rules — 720 draws, 5 from 1–41 (an earlier era).

78times drawn · chance expected 88 −1.12σ

1draws waiting · a wait this long: >99% for any number

9.2average wait between appearances · chance says 8.2

38longest completed wait · 47% chance of one at least that long

4 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 78 times in 720 draws against 87.8 expected, −1.12σ. Each draw is independent: after 1 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 4, draw by draw

Drawn 78 times in 720 draws · average wait 9.2 draws · longest completed wait 38 · waiting 1 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest51 · chance 56.4
2nd smallest27 · chance 19.9
3rd smallest0 · chance 1.7
4th smallest0 · chance 0.0
5th smallest0 · chance 0.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 7.8 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

12 3 29 34 17 20

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 40 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 41. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 4 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2023-10-16	21	1st	4 6 9 16 18
2023-09-25	4	1st	4 17 18 20 37
2023-09-21	7	1st	4 7 13 28 41
2023-09-14	4	1st	4 6 26

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 5/41 tonight whatever it did last week.

2023-01-25	17	2nd	3 4 23 25 35
2023-01-08	9	2nd	3 4 12 23 34
2021-12-30	4	1st	4 10 14 28 29
2021-12-26	1	1st	4 14 15 23 33
2021-12-25	3	1st	4 21 26 27 34
2021-12-22	4	2nd	1 4 15 20 22
2021-12-18	15	2nd	1 4 8 22 24
2021-12-03	15	2nd	3 4 10 35 36
2021-11-18	14	1st	4 16 21 34 38
2021-11-04	1	1st	4 12 15 26 36
2021-11-03	2	1st	4 19 26 33 40
2021-11-01	2	1st	4 6 32 35 39
2021-10-30	2	1st	4 15 35 38 39
2021-10-28	7	2nd	2 4 23 26 31
2021-10-21	5	2nd	3 4 5 6 33
2021-10-16	24	1st	4 5 9 25 41
2021-09-22	8	1st	4 5 13 15 18
2021-09-14	16	2nd	2 4 11 29 32
2021-08-29	21	1st	4 12 13 25 29
2021-08-08	1	1st	4 5 13 17 24
2021-08-07	6	1st	4 17 20 27 36
2021-08-01	4	1st	4 27 29 30 41
2021-07-28	2	1st	4 10 19 37 39
2021-07-26	4	2nd	2 4 6 25 27
2021-07-22	1	2nd	3 4 12 25 39
2021-07-21	1	1st	4 11 17 19 30
2021-07-20	5	1st	4 18 27 28 37
2021-07-15	4	1st	4 10 13 26 37
2021-07-11	6	2nd	3 4 12 16 29
2021-07-05	1	1st	4 12 28 33 41
2021-07-04	7	2nd	1 4 8 11 18
2021-06-27	4	1st	4 16 22 30 40
2021-06-23	16	1st	4 5 14 23 29
2021-06-07	4	1st	4 10 13 23 28
2021-06-03	19	2nd	2 4 13 18 36
2021-05-15	15	1st	4 20 32 38 40
2021-04-30	2	2nd	1 4 12 28 33
2021-04-28	18	1st	4 8 12 24 27
2021-04-10	8	2nd	2 4 12 30 31
2021-04-02	5	1st	4 9 24 32 35
2021-03-28	29	1st	4 14 19 25 30
2021-02-27	22	1st	4 25 31 32 37
2021-02-05	6	1st	4 17 28 30 33
2021-01-30	2	2nd	2 4 14 29 36
2021-01-28	10	1st	4 18 24 37 40
2021-01-18	19	2nd	1 4 18 27 38
2020-12-30	3	2nd	1 4 12 20 21
2020-12-27	12	2nd	1 4 17 30 35
2020-12-15	11	2nd	1 4 14 20 28
2020-12-04	1	1st	4 29 33 37 41
2020-12-03	1	1st	4 8 15 20 34
2020-12-02	10	1st	4 11 12 18 34
2020-11-22	19	1st	4 15 29 30 36
2020-11-03	—	2nd	3 4 25 35 36