Number 15

In Cash 5 under the 5/41 · Oct 2020 – Oct 2023 rules — 720 draws, 5 from 1–41 (an earlier era).

78times drawn · chance expected 88 −1.12σ

14draws waiting · a wait this long: 18% for any number

9.1average wait between appearances · chance says 8.2

29longest completed wait · 87% chance of one at least that long

15 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 78 times in 720 draws against 87.8 expected, −1.12σ. Each draw is independent: after 14 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 15, draw by draw

Drawn 78 times in 720 draws · average wait 9.1 draws · longest completed wait 29 · waiting 14 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 15 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest11 · chance 12.8
2nd smallest35 · chance 31.1
3rd smallest28 · chance 25.2
4th smallest3 · chance 8.1
5th smallest1 · chance 0.9

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 7.8 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

25 2 21 39 41 11

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 40 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 15 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 41. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 15 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2023-10-03	4	1st	15 18 36 40 41
2023-09-29	25	3rd	1 2 15 25 39
2023-09-04	7	3rd	7 9 15 31 39
2023-08-28	5	5th	2 9 11

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 15 is drawn with probability 5/41 tonight whatever it did last week.

2023-03-14	2	2nd	10 15 23 29 32
2023-03-12	1	1st	15 17 24 30 37
2023-03-11	1	2nd	13 15 30 31 33
2023-03-10	23	2nd	3 15 24 30 41
2023-02-15	10	3rd	9 11 15 19 32
2023-02-05	12	2nd	1 15 16 19 28
2023-01-24	4	2nd	10 15 21 30 38
2023-01-20	5	2nd	14 15 36 37 39
2023-01-15	12	3rd	9 11 15 26 35
2023-01-03	8	2nd	8 15 17 25 34
2021-12-26	4	3rd	4 14 15 23 33
2021-12-22	7	3rd	1 4 15 20 22
2021-12-15	13	4th	2 9 10 15 21
2021-12-02	28	2nd	2 15 24 30 36
2021-11-04	5	3rd	4 12 15 26 36
2021-10-30	12	2nd	4 15 35 38 39
2021-10-18	5	2nd	11 15 20 22 39
2021-10-13	13	1st	15 17 31 33 40
2021-09-30	2	2nd	2 15 17 34 40
2021-09-28	6	2nd	12 15 18 28 31
2021-09-22	1	4th	4 5 13 15 18
2021-09-21	8	1st	15 21 22 34 41
2021-09-13	5	2nd	11 15 17 22 24
2021-09-08	1	2nd	8 15 28 36 38
2021-09-07	11	1st	15 16 21 22 41
2021-08-27	5	2nd	2 15 24 25 36
2021-08-22	6	3rd	2 10 15 25 36
2021-08-16	6	3rd	8 14 15 36 37
2021-08-10	23	3rd	7 8 15 18 26
2021-07-18	5	3rd	5 7 15 37 41
2021-07-13	3	2nd	6 15 16 20 38
2021-07-10	22	1st	15 18 22 28 39
2021-06-18	5	3rd	6 8 15 18 38
2021-06-13	27	2nd	14 15 16 29 40
2021-05-17	6	3rd	5 8 15 16 23
2021-05-11	1	2nd	3 15 25 33 37
2021-05-10	1	1st	15 17 25 34 38
2021-05-09	24	1st	15 24 26 34 37
2021-04-15	8	3rd	5 13 15 25 39
2021-04-07	11	3rd	2 9 15 19 21
2021-03-27	27	2nd	1 15 17 19 21
2021-02-28	11	2nd	14 15 16 17 21
2021-02-17	13	2nd	13 15 21 32 34
2021-02-04	10	3rd	2 12 15 18 20
2021-01-25	20	4th	1 5 13 15 25
2021-01-05	19	2nd	9 15 29 32 39
2020-12-17	9	2nd	12 15 29 30 39
2020-12-08	5	2nd	7 15 25 32 41
2020-12-03	3	3rd	4 8 15 20 34
2020-11-30	4	1st	15 25 27 38 41
2020-11-26	4	2nd	8 15 23 25 39
2020-11-22	4	2nd	4 15 29 30 36
2020-11-18	13	3rd	3 5 15 16 40
2020-11-05	—	2nd	7 15 24 25 29