Number 15

In Bonus Match 5 under the 5/39 · Apr 2010 – Nov 2016 rules — 2,407 draws, 5 from 1–39 (an earlier era).

297times drawn · chance expected 309 −0.71σ

1draws waiting · a wait this long: >99% for any number

8.1average wait between appearances · chance says 7.8

50longest completed wait · 30% chance of one at least that long

15 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 297 times in 2,407 draws against 308.6 expected, −0.71σ. Each draw is independent: after 1 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 15, draw by draw

Drawn 297 times in 2,407 draws · average wait 8.1 draws · longest completed wait 50 · waiting 1 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 15 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest43 · chance 42.8
2nd smallest123 · chance 114.0
3rd smallest91 · chance 101.1
4th smallest39 · chance 35.1
5th smallest1 · chance 4.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 31.3 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

24 8 2 36 39 4

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 38 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 15 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 39. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 15 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2016-11-14	34	3rd	1 10 15 17 32
2016-10-11	7	2nd	10 15 21 27 36
2016-10-04	6	3rd	3 10 15 18 20
2016-09-28	9	4th	9 13

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 15 is drawn with probability 5/39 tonight whatever it did last week.

2016-03-27	2	3rd	1 11 15 21 34
2016-03-25	3	3rd	3 13 15 25 37
2016-03-22	1	2nd	8 15 18 25 31
2016-03-21	3	1st	15 16 19 24 32
2016-03-18	9	4th	4 10 14 15 22
2016-03-09	11	3rd	4 5 15 17 38
2016-02-27	24	2nd	7 15 16 35 36
2016-02-03	4	1st	15 27 29 35 36
2016-01-30	5	4th	2 5 11 15 18
2016-01-25	5	2nd	10 15 16 24 33
2016-01-20	1	3rd	1 8 15 19 33
2016-01-19	3	2nd	2 15 30 32 35
2016-01-16	9	2nd	4 15 18 33 34
2016-01-07	2	2nd	4 15 16 30 39
2016-01-05	5	2nd	13 15 19 23 26
2015-12-31	9	3rd	8 9 15 24 30
2015-12-22	18	3rd	1 9 15 32 34
2015-12-04	8	3rd	10 14 15 29 34
2015-11-26	7	2nd	3 15 22 26 27
2015-11-19	10	1st	15 23 32 37 39
2015-11-09	12	2nd	3 15 27 34 36
2015-10-28	13	3rd	7 13 15 23 25
2015-10-15	11	2nd	7 15 25 26 38
2015-10-04	3	1st	15 20 23 32 36
2015-10-01	4	4th	3 9 14 15 32
2015-09-27	5	1st	15 21 24 27 29
2015-09-22	15	2nd	5 15 19 22 37
2015-09-07	3	2nd	2 15 19 30 36
2015-09-04	11	2nd	9 15 21 23 38
2015-08-24	7	2nd	5 15 21 28 38
2015-08-17	1	2nd	6 15 27 29 35
2015-08-16	13	2nd	13 15 21 24 38
2015-08-03	9	2nd	8 15 18 30 35
2015-07-25	13	3rd	2 3 15 35 39
2015-07-12	6	2nd	2 15 16 22 24
2015-07-06	7	2nd	3 15 19 22 39
2015-06-29	8	3rd	3 6 15 23 28
2015-06-21	9	3rd	6 12 15 23 32
2015-06-12	16	3rd	1 3 15 22 26
2015-05-27	6	1st	15 19 24 31 33
2015-05-21	1	3rd	8 11 15 21 28
2015-05-20	50	3rd	2 8 15 20 34
2015-03-30	9	3rd	6 11 15 31 36
2015-03-21	2	2nd	9 15 17 21 24
2015-03-19	1	4th	8 12 14 15 34
2015-03-18	3	2nd	8 15 16 20 24
2015-03-15	8	2nd	6 15 20 22 33
2015-03-07	1	2nd	8 15 18 34 36
2015-03-06	11	3rd	8 11 15 17 28
2015-02-23	1	3rd	8 13 15 24 26
2015-02-22	7	3rd	3 13 15 16 22
2015-02-15	7	4th	4 6 9 15 26
2015-02-08	10	2nd	1 15 23 24 25
2015-01-29	1	4th	1 2 4 15 27
2015-01-28	2	1st	15 22 28 35 38
2015-01-26	2	4th	4 6 7 15 30
2015-01-24	2	4th	8 9 14 15 27
2015-01-22	1	2nd	2 15 25 28 37
2015-01-21	6	2nd	8 15 26 30 33
2015-01-15	1	3rd	5 12 15 30 34
2015-01-14	6	1st	15 20 26 38 39
2015-01-08	3	2nd	2 15 19 28 32
2015-01-05	5	3rd	5 10 15 23 26
2014-12-31	1	4th	1 4 11 15 27
2014-12-30	18	2nd	2 15 18 25 28
2014-12-12	1	4th	3 6 9 15 30
2014-12-11	2	1st	15 21 29 30 36
2014-12-09	1	3rd	7 8 15 16 36
2014-12-08	1	3rd	5 12 15 31 37
2014-12-07	5	3rd	2 8 15 23 34
2014-12-02	13	1st	15 26 33 34 38
2014-11-19	3	3rd	9 12 15 30 34
2014-11-16	6	2nd	10 15 29 30 38
2014-11-10	25	4th	8 11 13 15 30
2014-10-16	11	2nd	4 15 22 34 39
2014-10-05	1	2nd	8 15 22 33 39
2014-10-04	5	2nd	3 15 19 20 24
2014-09-29	3	3rd	6 13 15 21 33
2014-09-26	5	3rd	7 9 15 21 28
2014-09-21	3	2nd	14 15 20 24 27
2014-09-18	2	2nd	13 15 16 23 37
2014-09-16	3	2nd	8 15 19 20 32
2014-09-13	19	2nd	12 15 26 32 34
2014-08-25	3	3rd	11 12 15 24 37
2014-08-22	22	4th	2 6 7 15 24
2014-07-31	13	3rd	7 13 15 17 34
2014-07-18	5	1st	15 24 25 31 39
2014-07-13	5	4th	2 5 8 15 25
2014-07-08	2	2nd	13 15 19 30 39
2014-07-06	1	2nd	1 15 27 36 39
2014-07-04	2	3rd	1 9 15 36 39
2014-07-02	6	1st	15 20 22 30 36
2014-06-26	22	3rd	11 14 15 27 39
2014-06-04	8	4th	1 6 13 15 18
2014-05-27	9	3rd	2 11 15 26 38
2014-05-18	3	4th	1 3 9 15 28
2014-05-15	14	1st	15 19 25 27 37
2014-05-01	10	4th	4 6 10 15 27
2014-04-21	14	2nd	10 15 23 24 39
2014-04-07	6	1st	15 18 20 21 38
2014-04-01	3	2nd	14 15 21 23 39
2014-03-29	1	2nd	11 15 18 33 34
2014-03-28	6	3rd	4 8 15 16 26
2014-03-22	7	2nd	9 15 22 31 39
2014-03-15	11	1st	15 17 21 29 33
2014-03-04	2	3rd	11 13 15 20 31
2014-03-02	3	2nd	2 15 22 26 36
2014-02-27	18	2nd	14 15 26 28 38
2014-02-09	12	3rd	4 14 15 28 39
2014-01-28	4	2nd	6 15 24 26 39
2014-01-24	4	1st	15 17 18 23 39
2014-01-20	3	3rd	1 7 15 28 37
2014-01-17	4	2nd	6 15 18 20 21
2014-01-13	3	4th	1 3 6 15 38
2014-01-10	10	4th	3 13 14 15 23
2013-12-31	5	3rd	3 11 15 23 26
2013-12-26	3	3rd	4 10 15 22 24
2013-12-23	1	3rd	1 4 15 19 36
2013-12-22	5	2nd	11 15 18 24 39
2013-12-17	43	1st	15 19 28 32 36
2013-11-04	18	1st	15 18 22 30 34
2013-10-17	3	2nd	8 15 16 27 28
2013-10-14	12	3rd	3 7 15 25 32
2013-10-02	1	4th	11 12 14 15 17
2013-10-01	1	4th	7 12 14 15 23
2013-09-30	2	1st	15 23 27 28 38
2013-09-28	31	2nd	9 15 21 22 34
2013-08-28	3	2nd	9 15 19 25 30
2013-08-25	5	4th	3 6 14 15 36
2013-08-20	20	3rd	2 3 15 16 36
2013-07-31	1	1st	15 31 35 36 39
2013-07-30	7	3rd	2 8 15 17 29
2013-07-23	9	1st	15 26 29 33 35
2013-07-14	7	2nd	2 15 22 24 36
2013-07-07	15	3rd	4 9 15 31 35
2013-06-22	2	3rd	1 12 15 29 30
2013-06-20	2	2nd	2 15 23 25 37
2013-06-18	3	3rd	2 6 15 29 33
2013-06-15	30	3rd	2 6 15 19 28
2013-05-16	13	2nd	2 15 18 21 38
2013-05-03	1	3rd	1 6 15 37 38
2013-05-02	8	1st	15 16 22 24 25
2013-04-24	3	2nd	12 15 18 27 39
2013-04-21	5	2nd	11 15 17 20 27
2013-04-16	8	2nd	5 15 16 19 31
2013-04-08	6	4th	4 11 14 15 39
2013-04-02	2	2nd	11 15 20 30 32
2013-03-31	23	1st	15 20 29 33 34
2013-03-08	2	2nd	7 15 26 35 37
2013-03-06	8	3rd	3 5 15 25 30
2013-02-26	3	3rd	2 14 15 28 38
2013-02-23	10	1st	15 17 20 27 31
2013-02-13	5	2nd	8 15 17 30 39
2013-02-08	2	4th	1 2 7 15 22
2013-02-06	1	2nd	4 15 19 28 39
2013-02-05	28	2nd	5 15 19 35 39
2013-01-08	4	2nd	12 15 23 35 38
2013-01-04	2	1st	15 17 28 37 39
2013-01-02	37	4th	2 6 7 15 19
2012-11-26	21	3rd	7 13 15 19 29
2012-11-05	5	3rd	8 12 15 24 26
2012-10-31	11	2nd	6 15 18 26 32
2012-10-20	22	2nd	8 15 17 19 36
2012-09-28	5	3rd	3 10 15 17 28
2012-09-23	14	2nd	13 15 16 26 33
2012-09-09	6	3rd	2 11 15 20 29
2012-09-03	7	1st	15 22 27 35 38
2012-08-27	10	2nd	1 15 20 24 32
2012-08-17	37	2nd	12 15 17 27 37
2012-07-11	1	1st	15 23 24 29 33
2012-07-10	3	3rd	11 12 15 20 28
2012-07-07	8	3rd	4 10 15 31 39
2012-06-28	1	4th	5 6 8 15 19
2012-06-27	8	2nd	8 15 16 23 31
2012-06-19	1	1st	15 22 24 35 36
2012-06-18	1	2nd	14 15 21 37 38
2012-06-17	1	1st	15 18 31 34 35
2012-06-16	1	2nd	3 15 23 34 37
2012-06-15	6	2nd	4 15 17 33 36
2012-06-09	5	3rd	4 8 15 25 30
2012-06-04	13	2nd	1 15 25 29 37
2012-05-22	4	3rd	5 7 15 33 37
2012-05-18	7	3rd	6 11 15 31 37
2012-05-09	29	2nd	5 15 19 32 37
2012-04-10	3	4th	2 7 12 15 24
2012-04-07	7	1st	15 19 30 38 39
2012-03-31	9	2nd	4 15 23 26 28
2012-03-22	2	3rd	4 14 15 21 39
2012-03-20	4	1st	15 21 35 37 39
2012-03-16	2	2nd	2 15 16 19 38
2012-03-14	11	2nd	14 15 21 22 25
2012-03-03	27	4th	4 10 14 15 22
2012-02-05	9	2nd	2 15 18 20 29
2012-01-27	13	2nd	5 15 19 29 36
2012-01-14	8	2nd	6 15 21 26 29
2012-01-06	13	2nd	8 15 17 19 25
2011-12-24	4	2nd	2 15 24 28 38
2011-12-20	11	2nd	12 15 23 24 30
2011-12-09	1	2nd	6 15 22 25 35
2011-12-08	17	2nd	4 15 18 28 35
2011-11-21	7	2nd	1 15 21 38 39
2011-11-14	8	4th	1 2 5 15 34
2011-11-06	2	2nd	1 15 17 24 36
2011-11-04	11	2nd	10 15 16 28 32
2011-10-24	2	4th	2 7 12 15 33
2011-10-22	7	4th	10 11 12 15 31
2011-10-14	6	2nd	13 15 18 36 39
2011-10-08	5	3rd	9 13 15 24 30
2011-10-03	20	2nd	4 15 20 26 36
2011-09-13	1	2nd	12 15 18 23 31
2011-09-12	10	2nd	8 15 24 26 33
2011-09-02	9	2nd	4 15 25 33 36
2011-08-24	4	3rd	4 12 15 21 33
2011-08-20	19	2nd	8 15 21 25 38
2011-07-31	5	4th	4 5 14 15 25
2011-07-26	8	3rd	3 13 15 32 36
2011-07-18	1	4th	8 11 12 15 36
2011-07-17	11	3rd	12 13 15 23 24
2011-07-06	22	3rd	5 10 15 27 31
2011-06-13	11	3rd	7 8 15 16 30
2011-06-02	10	4th	2 7 11 15 33
2011-05-23	8	2nd	5 15 21 36 37
2011-05-15	6	2nd	5 15 22 36 39
2011-05-09	4	2nd	6 15 19 26 35
2011-05-05	5	3rd	4 6 15 35 36
2011-04-30	7	3rd	9 13 15 33 36
2011-04-23	3	2nd	11 15 30 34 37
2011-04-20	1	3rd	2 13 15 17 19
2011-04-19	8	1st	15 26 28 30 37
2011-04-11	16	2nd	8 15 20 24 29
2011-03-26	21	2nd	2 15 22 29 38
2011-03-05	4	2nd	7 15 32 33 37
2011-03-01	4	2nd	7 15 16 26 39
2011-02-25	1	3rd	6 13 15 24 25
2011-02-24	12	4th	10 11 14 15 16
2011-02-12	22	1st	15 31 33 34 38
2011-01-21	3	2nd	12 15 18 20 23
2011-01-18	23	3rd	6 8 15 16 26
2010-12-26	7	1st	15 21 23 37 38
2010-12-19	18	2nd	3 15 20 24 29
2010-12-01	2	2nd	14 15 16 21 32
2010-11-29	2	4th	3 7 11 15 39
2010-11-27	9	1st	15 17 18 30 34
2010-11-18	8	3rd	2 14 15 29 32
2010-11-10	8	1st	15 20 30 32 38
2010-11-02	1	1st	15 17 29 32 33
2010-11-01	6	1st	15 16 22 24 26
2010-10-26	15	3rd	5 10 15 29 35
2010-10-11	12	2nd	4 15 18 25 29
2010-09-29	5	2nd	8 15 23 31 32
2010-09-24	1	2nd	8 15 22 38 39
2010-09-23	6	1st	15 17 21 22 32
2010-09-17	11	3rd	9 11 15 30 34
2010-09-06	2	1st	15 18 25 34 39
2010-09-04	1	3rd	7 10 15 29 36
2010-09-03	8	2nd	2 15 19 20 26
2010-08-26	12	1st	15 20 22 37 38
2010-08-14	2	2nd	9 15 25 30 35
2010-08-12	2	3rd	12 14 15 24 30
2010-08-10	2	2nd	1 15 20 28 34
2010-08-08	10	3rd	5 10 15 16 37
2010-07-29	5	3rd	1 6 15 28 29
2010-07-24	4	2nd	2 15 24 34 37
2010-07-20	3	2nd	4 15 22 30 33
2010-07-17	11	3rd	11 12 15 21 25
2010-07-06	3	3rd	1 4 15 16 35
2010-07-03	7	3rd	12 14 15 17 23
2010-06-26	24	2nd	14 15 17 20 26
2010-06-02	6	1st	15 24 25 26 32
2010-05-27	26	2nd	2 15 25 27 36
2010-05-01	23	3rd	8 10 15 25 28
2010-04-08	1	3rd	3 6 15 28 30
2010-04-07	—	4th	6 7 10 15 37