Number 4

In MultiMatch under the 6/43 · Apr 2010 – Nov 2022 rules — 1,318 draws, 6 from 1–43 (an earlier era).

176times drawn · chance expected 184 −0.63σ

11draws waiting · a wait this long: 22% for any number

7.4average wait between appearances · chance says 7.2

39longest completed wait · 44% chance of one at least that long

4 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 176 times in 1,318 draws against 183.9 expected, −0.63σ. Each draw is independent: after 11 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 4, draw by draw

Drawn 176 times in 1,318 draws · average wait 7.4 draws · longest completed wait 39 · waiting 11 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest119 · chance 119.1
2nd smallest47 · chance 51.1
3rd smallest10 · chance 5.7
4th smallest0 · chance 0.2
5th smallest0 · chance 0.0
6th smallest0 · chance 0.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 21.0 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

34 15 31 1 23 24

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 42 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 43. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 4 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2022-10-13	2	1st	4 10 11 15 17 38
2022-10-06	4	1st	4 26 29 35 37 39
2022-09-22	1	1st	4 6 20 27 29 37

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 6/43 tonight whatever it did last week.

2020-10-22	9	1st	4 6 13 15 32 34
2020-09-21	1	1st	4 6 21 28 30 32
2020-09-17	2	1st	4 15 19 25 32 39
2020-09-10	6	1st	4 7 21 28 37 41
2020-08-20	18	3rd	1 3 4 24 33 40
2020-06-18	7	1st	4 27 28 31 32 36
2020-05-25	8	1st	4 15 30 31 32 38
2020-04-27	4	1st	4 8 9 12 15 36
2020-04-13	3	1st	4 5 10 12 15 27
2020-04-02	3	2nd	2 4 14 18 22 28
2020-03-23	2	2nd	2 4 17 21 24 35
2020-03-16	9	1st	4 22 23 33 35 43
2020-02-13	10	1st	4 19 34 35 36 39
2020-01-09	2	2nd	1 4 8 10 22 26
2020-01-02	7	1st	4 22 24 25 29 37
2019-12-09	12	1st	4 14 15 29 34 38
2019-10-28	5	1st	4 10 18 19 33 39
2019-10-10	1	2nd	2 4 6 17 40 42
2019-10-07	13	1st	4 26 27 28 29 34
2019-08-22	6	1st	4 10 11 18 35 38
2019-08-01	14	1st	4 5 6 19 29 42
2019-06-13	15	2nd	2 4 9 33 34 39
2019-04-22	14	1st	4 7 20 23 26 31
2019-03-04	4	1st	4 15 29 30 37 38
2019-02-18	3	3rd	2 3 4 6 23 32
2019-02-07	1	3rd	2 3 4 5 18 38
2019-02-04	18	2nd	2 4 5 14 15 39
2018-12-03	6	1st	4 7 10 25 37 43
2018-11-12	13	3rd	2 3 4 28 32 34
2018-09-27	15	1st	4 12 18 22 31 36
2018-08-06	6	1st	4 6 9 32 40 43
2018-07-16	12	1st	4 10 17 23 24 36
2018-06-04	3	1st	4 10 16 30 34 36
2018-05-24	1	1st	4 6 7 13 14 20
2018-05-21	4	1st	4 8 10 16 27 35
2018-05-07	1	2nd	3 4 9 21 23 39
2018-05-03	12	1st	4 6 13 18 25 42
2018-03-22	4	1st	4 5 17 20 41 42
2018-03-08	2	2nd	1 4 15 18 30 31
2018-03-01	4	1st	4 15 16 36 40 42
2018-02-15	11	1st	4 13 18 24 25 40
2018-01-08	1	1st	4 11 15 21 23 40
2018-01-04	2	1st	4 5 7 8 12 24
2017-12-28	2	2nd	2 4 15 31 36 38
2017-12-21	14	1st	4 8 20 27 33 40
2017-11-02	4	3rd	1 3 4 10 26 33
2017-10-19	5	1st	4 13 17 20 25 39
2017-10-02	12	3rd	1 3 4 28 32 34
2017-08-21	6	2nd	1 4 11 17 32 42
2017-07-31	2	1st	4 6 10 14 27 43
2017-07-24	8	1st	4 16 21 31 38 39
2017-06-26	5	2nd	1 4 12 22 39 40
2017-06-08	1	1st	4 11 17 18 30 34
2017-06-05	5	1st	4 5 9 17 22 41
2017-05-18	3	1st	4 13 17 24 31 32
2017-05-08	3	2nd	1 4 5 16 20 24
2017-04-27	9	2nd	1 4 20 32 40 41
2017-03-27	7	2nd	3 4 11 12 17 41
2017-03-02	3	2nd	1 4 23 33 37 38
2017-02-20	3	1st	4 5 15 17 23 31
2017-02-09	5	1st	4 6 15 19 20 26
2017-01-23	1	1st	4 10 15 31 34 43
2017-01-19	6	1st	4 20 24 27 34 38
2016-12-29	6	2nd	1 4 7 12 14 17
2016-12-08	5	1st	4 9 23 29 37 38
2016-11-21	3	1st	4 6 11 19 26 33
2016-11-10	5	1st	4 9 13 15 23 30
2016-10-24	19	1st	4 21 24 30 35 42
2016-08-18	8	1st	4 11 23 24 26 41
2016-07-21	5	2nd	3 4 20 23 29 38
2016-07-04	7	2nd	2 4 16 21 27 34
2016-06-09	3	2nd	3 4 19 24 31 32
2016-05-30	5	1st	4 11 14 29 33 36
2016-05-12	3	1st	4 30 32 33 37 41
2016-05-02	2	1st	4 6 14 31 34 41
2016-04-25	3	2nd	2 4 12 31 36 43
2016-04-14	28	1st	4 14 18 24 33 37
2016-01-07	3	3rd	1 3 4 7 11 16
2015-12-28	9	2nd	2 4 5 6 15 40
2015-11-26	12	1st	4 5 16 31 35 37
2015-10-15	4	2nd	1 4 8 23 34 37
2015-10-01	5	2nd	1 4 21 34 37 41
2015-09-14	3	1st	4 14 17 24 35 36
2015-09-03	12	1st	4 7 13 18 40 43
2015-07-23	1	2nd	1 4 6 28 41 42
2015-07-20	2	2nd	1 4 6 12 18 36
2015-07-13	9	2nd	2 4 16 20 30 43
2015-06-11	3	1st	4 16 22 23 27 31
2015-06-01	2	1st	4 19 23 28 36 42
2015-05-25	9	1st	4 10 26 28 30 35
2015-04-23	7	2nd	1 4 8 20 21 35
2015-03-30	14	2nd	2 4 5 7 16 26
2015-02-09	5	3rd	2 3 4 7 17 19
2015-01-22	4	2nd	3 4 12 25 31 40
2015-01-08	20	2nd	1 4 9 32 39 40
2014-10-30	4	1st	4 16 20 23 41 43
2014-10-16	3	1st	4 5 17 18 32 37
2014-10-06	6	1st	4 8 12 26 39 42
2014-09-15	2	1st	4 14 23 31 34 43
2014-09-08	11	1st	4 13 24 32 34 36
2014-07-31	13	1st	4 5 20 25 33 39
2014-06-16	7	1st	4 11 22 36 37 40
2014-05-22	8	1st	4 22 25 29 34 35
2014-04-24	6	2nd	3 4 14 21 25 29
2014-04-03	5	1st	4 12 17 25 30 34
2014-03-17	7	3rd	2 3 4 33 38 40
2014-02-20	1	1st	4 9 11 14 34 38
2014-02-17	5	2nd	2 4 6 9 28 32
2014-01-30	1	1st	4 7 13 17 33 43
2014-01-27	9	2nd	2 4 5 8 12 36
2013-12-26	1	1st	4 16 20 21 28 37
2013-12-23	5	1st	4 5 9 15 22 26
2013-12-05	8	1st	4 11 15 25 34 40
2013-11-07	5	1st	4 15 19 23 36 40
2013-10-21	9	2nd	1 4 20 34 35 36
2013-09-19	1	2nd	1 4 6 16 36 37
2013-09-16	22	1st	4 5 15 16 18 22
2013-07-01	5	1st	4 9 23 26 29 31
2013-06-13	23	1st	4 7 16 17 37 38
2013-03-25	13	1st	4 5 15 18 25 26
2013-02-07	1	1st	4 8 28 35 41 42
2013-02-04	5	1st	4 13 22 29 34 41
2013-01-17	12	1st	4 6 10 15 16 24
2012-12-06	29	1st	4 5 18 28 36 41
2012-08-27	4	1st	4 8 9 15 21 41
2012-08-13	1	1st	4 18 21 25 34 36
2012-08-09	15	2nd	1 4 10 17 19 40
2012-06-18	3	1st	4 18 24 29 35 38
2012-06-07	2	1st	4 7 11 13 24 25
2012-05-31	24	1st	4 20 23 29 34 42
2012-03-08	18	1st	4 16 21 22 23 32
2012-01-02	22	2nd	2 4 17 20 31 35
2011-10-17	1	1st	4 5 8 18 30 38
2011-10-13	5	1st	4 5 6 12 24 30
2011-09-26	9	1st	4 9 15 32 33 39
2011-08-25	5	1st	4 8 25 29 38 41
2011-08-08	8	2nd	3 4 10 11 22 42
2011-07-11	5	2nd	2 4 7 31 32 41
2011-06-23	9	1st	4 5 13 22 32 40
2011-05-23	10	1st	4 13 14 19 20 25
2011-04-18	10	2nd	1 4 11 16 19 34
2011-03-14	1	1st	4 11 33 34 38 39
2011-03-10	6	2nd	1 4 26 38 39 43
2011-02-17	8	1st	4 10 21 25 27 33
2011-01-20	2	2nd	1 4 15 29 31 42
2011-01-13	16	1st	4 20 21 22 23 27
2010-11-18	18	1st	4 7 22 34 37 41
2010-09-16	21	3rd	2 3 4 6 22 41
2010-07-05	3	1st	4 13 18 21 26 27
2010-06-24	2	1st	4 14 27 31 35 42
2010-06-17	9	1st	4 11 17 29 30 31
2010-05-17	—	1st	4 13 19 24 28 38