In Mega Millions under the 5/70 + 1/25 · Oct 2017 – Apr 2025 rules — 776 draws, 5 from 1–70 (an earlier era).
49times drawn · chance expected 55 −0.90σ
1draws waiting · a wait this long: >99% for any number
16.0average wait between appearances · chance says 14.0
59longest completed wait · 48% chance of one at least that long
21 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 49 times in 776 draws against 55.4 expected, −0.90σ. Each draw is independent: after 1 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
21
Number 21, draw by draw
Drawn 49 times in 776 draws · average wait 16.0 draws · longest completed wait 59 · waiting 1 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 21 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Never drawn alongside 3 of the other 69 numbers; chance expects about 4 such strangers by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 21 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 70. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 21 is drawn with probability 5/70 tonight whatever it did last week.