Number 10

In Mega Millions under the 5/70 + 1/25 · Oct 2017 – Apr 2025 rules — 776 draws, 5 from 1–70 (an earlier era).

71times drawn · chance expected 55 +2.17σ

19draws waiting · a wait this long: 26% for any number

10.8average wait between appearances · chance says 14.0

82longest completed wait · 16% chance of one at least that long

10 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 71 times in 776 draws against 55.4 expected, +2.17σ. Each draw is independent: after 19 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 10, draw by draw

Drawn 71 times in 776 draws · average wait 10.8 draws · longest completed wait 82 · waiting 19 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 10 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest39 · chance 40.0
2nd smallest25 · chance 25.3
3rd smallest6 · chance 5.2
4th smallest1 · chance 0.4
5th smallest0 · chance 0.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 4.1 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

17 20 8 54 57 66

Never drawn alongside 1 of the other 69 numbers; chance expects about 1 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 10 is picked about 1.41× as often as an indifferent choice — 5th most popular of 70. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10
Round numbers (multiples of 10) ×1.05

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 10 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2025-01-28	3	1st	10 19 31 47 56
2025-01-17	28	2nd	8 10 37 54 69
2024-10-11	5	2nd	3 10 29 52 57
2024-09-24	7	3rd	1 6

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 10 is drawn with probability 5/70 tonight whatever it did last week.

2022-07-12	71	3rd	4 7 10 45 64
2021-11-05	1	1st	10 15 20 66 68
2021-11-02	17	2nd	5 10 26 58 65
2021-09-03	2	2nd	7 10 12 61 65
2021-08-27	11	2nd	1 10 44 47 56
2021-07-20	2	1st	10 26 30 52 57
2021-07-13	13	2nd	3 10 17 26 55
2021-05-28	6	1st	10 14 20 47 70
2021-05-07	7	2nd	5 10 19 21 50
2021-04-13	3	1st	10 15 19 45 68
2021-04-02	5	1st	10 42 48 53 62
2021-03-16	3	1st	10 41 46 52 69
2021-03-05	13	1st	10 11 17 27 54
2021-01-19	10	1st	10 19 26 28 50
2020-12-15	5	2nd	1 10 18 20 46
2020-11-27	23	2nd	4 10 27 35 58
2020-09-08	4	2nd	7 10 15 31 57
2020-08-25	13	2nd	8 10 15 17 57
2020-07-10	9	1st	10 15 20 49 53
2020-06-09	3	4th	1 5 9 10 23
2020-05-29	2	1st	10 13 32 41 51
2020-05-22	28	2nd	8 10 20 44 46
2020-02-14	28	1st	10 32 48 54 55
2019-11-08	9	3rd	3 4 10 39 58
2019-10-08	2	3rd	5 8 10 17 48
2019-10-01	18	1st	10 17 39 42 59
2019-07-30	20	1st	10 24 28 33 38
2019-05-21	18	1st	10 50 55 56 58
2019-03-19	2	1st	10 42 53 67 68
2019-03-12	4	1st	10 12 16 49 57
2019-02-26	3	1st	10 12 14 24 60
2019-02-15	5	1st	10 38 40 43 65
2019-01-29	9	1st	10 33 53 54 62
2018-12-28	2	2nd	9 10 25 37 38
2018-12-21	4	1st	10 13 61 62 70
2018-12-07	4	2nd	4 10 20 33 57
2018-11-23	1	2nd	7 10 30 33 59
2018-11-20	21	1st	10 16 31 42 66
2018-09-07	18	2nd	8 10 41 54 68
2018-07-06	18	2nd	2 10 46 50 56
2018-05-04	19	3rd	4 5 10 12 18
2018-02-27	9	1st	10 17 21 38 43
2018-01-26	8	1st	10 16 27 38 43
2017-12-29	1	2nd	4 10 18 28 62
2017-12-26	8	1st	10 12 20 38 41
2017-11-28	7	1st	10 17 47 51 61
2017-11-03	—	1st	10 22 42 61 69