In Mega Millions under the 5/56 + 1/46 · Jun 2005 – Oct 2013 rules — 869 draws, 5 from 1–56 (an earlier era).
62times drawn · chance expected 78 −1.85σ
6draws waiting · a wait this long: 63% for any number
13.8average wait between appearances · chance says 11.2
59longest completed wait · 24% chance of one at least that long
49 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 62 times in 869 draws against 77.6 expected, −1.85σ. Each draw is independent: after 6 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
49
Number 49, draw by draw
Drawn 62 times in 869 draws · average wait 13.8 draws · longest completed wait 59 · waiting 6 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 49 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
It has shared a draw with every one of the other 55 numbers; chance expected about 0.6 still unmet by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 49 is picked about 0.86× as often as an indifferent choice — 34th most popular of 56. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 49 is drawn with probability 5/56 tonight whatever it did last week.