Number 22

In Mega Millions under the 5/56 + 1/46 · Jun 2005 – Oct 2013 rules — 869 draws, 5 from 1–56 (an earlier era).

77times drawn · chance expected 78 −0.07σ

10draws waiting · a wait this long: 43% for any number

11.3average wait between appearances · chance says 11.2

35longest completed wait · 96% chance of one at least that long

22 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 77 times in 869 draws against 77.6 expected, −0.07σ. Each draw is independent: after 10 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 22, draw by draw

Drawn 77 times in 869 draws · average wait 11.3 draws · longest completed wait 35 · waiting 10 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 22 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest9 · chance 10.5
2nd smallest29 · chance 28.4
3rd smallest27 · chance 26.6
4th smallest11 · chance 10.2
5th smallest1 · chance 1.4

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 5.6 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

48 52 2 8 38 50

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 55 numbers; chance expected about 0.2 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 22 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 56. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 22 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2013-09-13	2	2nd	9 22 28 48 54
2013-09-06	12	4th	2 16 17 22 41
2013-07-26	27	2nd	4 22 23 27 38
2013-04-23	1	3rd	9 21

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 22 is drawn with probability 5/56 tonight whatever it did last week.

2011-03-25	9	1st	22 24 31 52 54
2011-02-22	6	2nd	15 22 23 48 55
2011-02-01	7	2nd	16 22 23 26 35
2011-01-07	7	2nd	4 22 42 46 53
2010-12-14	28	2nd	18 22 25 31 38
2010-09-07	10	3rd	8 18 22 24 38
2010-08-03	35	4th	4 13 20 22 56
2010-04-02	5	3rd	2 17 22 30 31
2010-03-16	7	2nd	3 22 48 52 56
2010-02-19	6	2nd	1 22 39 42 46
2010-01-29	21	3rd	1 10 22 23 38
2009-11-17	24	2nd	8 22 27 49 50
2009-08-25	3	4th	3 12 19 22 40
2009-08-14	35	2nd	8 22 25 33 35
2009-04-14	3	3rd	4 11 22 48 50
2009-04-03	23	2nd	16 22 38 39 48
2009-01-13	4	1st	22 25 33 36 48
2008-12-30	8	2nd	1 22 29 44 52
2008-12-02	2	3rd	2 17 22 32 51
2008-11-25	1	3rd	2 11 22 51 52
2008-11-21	1	2nd	1 22 52 53 56
2008-11-18	20	3rd	10 15 22 52 53
2008-09-09	18	1st	22 23 28 49 52
2008-07-08	2	3rd	1 20 22 29 41
2008-07-01	1	2nd	1 22 33 43 52
2008-06-27	1	3rd	8 14 22 39 50
2008-06-24	9	2nd	10 22 36 50 53
2008-05-23	9	4th	4 8 11 22 30
2008-04-22	15	2nd	3 22 31 48 54
2008-02-29	2	3rd	5 17 22 26 55
2008-02-22	8	5th	7 12 13 19 22
2008-01-25	1	3rd	5 12 22 38 56
2008-01-22	1	3rd	12 15 22 25 33
2008-01-18	2	2nd	12 22 33 43 44
2008-01-11	4	1st	22 36 42 45 55
2007-12-28	34	3rd	2 19 22 28 54
2007-08-31	28	3rd	8 18 22 40 44
2007-05-25	1	3rd	10 14 22 42 43
2007-05-22	22	4th	2 7 11 22 36
2007-03-06	9	2nd	16 22 29 39 42
2007-02-02	18	1st	22 33 35 40 53
2006-12-01	7	2nd	16 22 23 37 53
2006-11-07	1	2nd	13 22 33 51 52
2006-11-03	2	3rd	8 10 22 25 55
2006-10-27	10	2nd	15 22 26 30 32
2006-09-22	11	4th	7 12 17 22 43
2006-08-15	30	3rd	10 12 22 44 48
2006-05-02	29	3rd	7 11 22 27 31
2006-01-20	11	2nd	18 22 28 44 53
2005-12-13	6	4th	9 10 12 22 41
2005-11-22	32	2nd	9 22 37 41 43
2005-08-02	8	2nd	17 22 39 50 52
2005-07-05	—	1st	22 38 48 50 55