Number 54

In Mega Millions under the 5/56 + 1/46 · Jun 2005 – Oct 2013 rules — 869 draws, 5 from 1–56 (an earlier era).

70times drawn · chance expected 78 −0.90σ

10draws waiting · a wait this long: 43% for any number

12.3average wait between appearances · chance says 11.2

57longest completed wait · 31% chance of one at least that long

54 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 70 times in 869 draws against 77.6 expected, −0.90σ. Each draw is independent: after 10 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 54, draw by draw

Drawn 70 times in 869 draws · average wait 12.3 draws · longest completed wait 57 · waiting 10 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 54 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest0 · chance 0.0
2nd smallest0 · chance 0.0
3rd smallest1 · chance 0.3
4th smallest10 · chance 9.6
5th smallest59 · chance 60.1

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 5.1 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

48 16 7 45 49 4

Never drawn alongside 1 of the other 55 numbers; chance expects about 0.3 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 54 is picked about 0.86× as often as an indifferent choice — 34th most popular of 56. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers above 31 ×0.86

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 54 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2013-09-13	1	5th	9 22 28 48 54
2013-09-10	19	4th	2 12 18 54 56
2013-07-05	11	5th	2 23 41 47 54
2013-05-28	7	5th	4 12

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 54 is drawn with probability 5/56 tonight whatever it did last week.

2010-06-08	8	5th	12 18 28 48 54
2010-05-11	15	5th	26 33 43 46 54
2010-03-19	6	5th	10 31 45 50 54
2010-02-26	18	4th	4 14 29 54 56
2009-12-25	12	5th	4 16 44 52 54
2009-11-13	6	5th	27 43 45 49 54
2009-10-23	12	4th	27 45 48 54 56
2009-09-11	4	5th	16 27 48 49 54
2009-08-28	17	5th	1 17 31 37 54
2009-06-30	16	4th	7 34 49 54 55
2009-05-05	39	5th	5 23 38 39 54
2008-12-19	31	5th	3 13 16 39 54
2008-09-02	25	5th	14 23 43 44 54
2008-06-06	1	5th	8 9 43 44 54
2008-06-03	8	5th	4 19 24 32 54
2008-05-06	4	5th	4 21 46 53 54
2008-04-22	30	5th	3 22 31 48 54
2008-01-08	2	5th	10 29 45 52 54
2008-01-01	1	5th	13 16 25 30 54
2007-12-28	22	5th	2 19 22 28 54
2007-10-12	5	5th	21 26 34 44 54
2007-09-25	10	5th	2 19 23 47 54
2007-08-21	3	3rd	8 38 54 55 56
2007-08-10	4	5th	10 20 32 33 54
2007-07-27	11	4th	7 12 35 54 55
2007-06-19	6	5th	5 16 31 49 54
2007-05-29	5	5th	2 24 44 51 54
2007-05-11	1	5th	28 30 33 48 54
2007-05-08	29	5th	16 24 41 43 54
2007-01-26	5	5th	16 17 36 49 54
2007-01-09	23	5th	7 11 26 38 54
2006-10-20	16	5th	9 13 23 29 54
2006-08-25	16	5th	17 24 35 46 54
2006-06-30	3	5th	20 40 46 48 54
2006-06-20	8	5th	11 21 37 53 54
2006-05-23	21	5th	17 21 28 48 54
2006-03-10	7	5th	4 17 18 51 54
2006-02-14	4	5th	27 36 43 49 54
2006-01-31	11	4th	1 35 53 54 56
2005-12-23	14	5th	10 37 39 49 54
2005-11-04	7	5th	7 9 41 53 54
2005-10-11	13	5th	24 30 42 53 54
2005-08-26	4	5th	5 20 38 47 54
2005-08-12	6	5th	8 37 38 45 54
2005-07-22	1	5th	7 18 27 35 54
2005-07-19	—	5th	7 13 48 51 54