Number 4

In Cash 5 under the 5/41 · May 2016 – Nov 2018 rules — 897 draws, 5 from 1–41 (an earlier era).

117times drawn · chance expected 109 +0.78σ

9draws waiting · a wait this long: 35% for any number

7.6average wait between appearances · chance says 8.2

38longest completed wait · 61% chance of one at least that long

4 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 117 times in 897 draws against 109.4 expected, +0.78σ. Each draw is independent: after 9 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 4, draw by draw

Drawn 117 times in 897 draws · average wait 7.6 draws · longest completed wait 38 · waiting 9 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest82 · chance 84.6
2nd smallest34 · chance 29.8
3rd smallest1 · chance 2.6
4th smallest0 · chance 0.0
5th smallest0 · chance 0.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 11.7 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

5 33 18 23 32 27

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 40 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 41. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 4 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2018-10-25	10	1st	4 23 26 33 40
2018-10-15	23	1st	4 17 20 38 40
2018-09-22	4	1st	4 10 11 29 30
2018-09-18	16	1st	4 27 30

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 5/41 tonight whatever it did last week.

2018-04-11	3	1st	4 6 11 35 36
2018-04-08	2	2nd	3 4 14 33 41
2018-04-06	15	1st	4 9 25 30 35
2018-03-22	2	2nd	2 4 13 24 33
2018-03-20	7	1st	4 17 22 29 30
2018-03-13	21	1st	4 23 29 35 40
2018-02-20	6	1st	4 5 18 24 25
2018-02-14	2	1st	4 7 10 21 22
2018-02-12	2	1st	4 5 8 24 35
2018-02-10	24	1st	4 11 22 37 39
2018-01-17	8	2nd	3 4 5 10 38
2018-01-09	5	1st	4 12 13 17 27
2018-01-04	5	1st	4 5 12 38 39
2017-12-30	4	2nd	3 4 11 13 18
2017-12-26	8	1st	4 22 23 24 41
2017-12-18	15	1st	4 13 19 29 32
2017-12-03	2	2nd	2 4 6 8 32
2017-12-01	1	1st	4 17 18 23 32
2017-11-30	13	1st	4 5 18 28 40
2017-11-17	1	2nd	1 4 21 26 27
2017-11-16	16	2nd	2 4 10 30 33
2017-10-31	5	2nd	3 4 9 20 33
2017-10-26	3	2nd	3 4 7 20 28
2017-10-23	8	2nd	3 4 8 10 31
2017-10-14	3	2nd	3 4 5 16 22
2017-10-11	38	2nd	1 4 6 13 21
2017-09-02	13	1st	4 19 30 32 37
2017-08-20	1	2nd	3 4 7 17 40
2017-08-19	5	1st	4 13 21 29 40
2017-08-14	3	1st	4 10 17 22 35
2017-08-11	1	1st	4 6 10 24 41
2017-08-10	19	1st	4 6 9 16 22
2017-07-22	2	1st	4 12 18 30 38
2017-07-20	20	1st	4 7 25 29 34
2017-06-30	2	1st	4 21 27 28 35
2017-06-28	9	1st	4 5 12 16 20
2017-06-19	5	1st	4 16 26 27 37
2017-06-14	4	1st	4 5 21 29 36
2017-06-10	3	1st	4 20 21 23 41
2017-06-07	2	1st	4 5 26 34 36
2017-06-05	2	1st	4 7 9 23 32
2017-06-03	1	2nd	2 4 25 34 38
2017-06-02	4	2nd	1 4 24 32 33
2017-05-29	13	1st	4 8 24 26 33
2017-05-16	3	1st	4 11 19 27 32
2017-05-13	12	1st	4 17 18 23 40
2017-05-01	8	1st	4 12 27 32 33
2017-04-23	11	1st	4 17 21 34 35
2017-04-12	9	1st	4 6 7 8 25
2017-04-01	1	1st	4 16 22 24 25
2017-03-31	6	2nd	3 4 19 31 35
2017-03-25	9	2nd	1 4 16 18 26
2017-03-16	4	1st	4 13 23 28 39
2017-03-12	1	1st	4 10 22 26 33
2017-03-11	6	1st	4 8 9 11 27
2017-03-05	3	1st	4 17 18 27 37
2017-03-02	2	1st	4 14 28 34 38
2017-02-28	3	1st	4 5 8 23 33
2017-02-25	11	2nd	3 4 14 18 29
2017-02-14	9	1st	4 9 13 28 39
2017-02-05	2	2nd	3 4 30 33 40
2017-02-03	12	1st	4 5 14 18 34
2017-01-22	1	3rd	1 3 4 6 23
2017-01-21	2	2nd	2 4 22 32 38
2017-01-19	12	2nd	2 4 5 20 21
2017-01-07	8	1st	4 20 25 33 40
2016-12-30	2	1st	4 9 32 34 38
2016-12-28	13	1st	4 18 25 30 40
2016-12-15	1	2nd	3 4 9 24 27
2016-12-14	1	1st	4 7 29 32 36
2016-12-13	4	1st	4 11 18 37 40
2016-12-09	3	2nd	1 4 22 23 32
2016-12-06	4	2nd	1 4 9 11 16
2016-12-02	7	1st	4 19 23 26 28
2016-11-25	8	1st	4 28 33 38 41
2016-11-17	2	1st	4 5 9 23 41
2016-11-15	1	2nd	1 4 9 20 27
2016-11-14	31	1st	4 7 17 24 27
2016-10-14	12	1st	4 5 20 31 34
2016-10-02	3	1st	4 11 20 21 39
2016-09-29	2	1st	4 10 26 32 37
2016-09-27	23	2nd	1 4 20 21 27
2016-09-04	4	1st	4 15 26 29 32
2016-08-31	31	1st	4 24 25 29 34
2016-07-31	4	1st	4 5 6 18 39
2016-07-27	6	1st	4 8 11 22 25
2016-07-21	9	1st	4 29 30 39 40
2016-07-12	3	1st	4 6 8 26 40
2016-07-09	8	2nd	2 4 5 32 36
2016-07-01	20	1st	4 7 22 33 36
2016-06-11	9	1st	4 6 8 17 29
2016-06-02	14	1st	4 13 16 27 40
2016-05-19	—	1st	4 11 15 19 23