Number 15

In Cash 5 under the 5/41 · May 2016 – Nov 2018 rules — 897 draws, 5 from 1–41 (an earlier era).

81times drawn · chance expected 109 −2.90σ

10draws waiting · a wait this long: 31% for any number

11.1average wait between appearances · chance says 8.2

47longest completed wait · 18% chance of one at least that long

15 looks unusual on its own — and unremarkable among 41 numbers

Drawn 81 times in 897 draws against 109.4 expected, −2.90σ. Testing all 41 numbers at once means about 0.4 should look this way by luck alone, so the threshold tightens to 2.4e-4 and this does not pass it.

Number 15, draw by draw

Drawn 81 times in 897 draws · average wait 11.1 draws · longest completed wait 47 · waiting 10 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 15 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest14 · chance 13.3
2nd smallest38 · chance 32.3
3rd smallest19 · chance 26.2
4th smallest9 · chance 8.4
5th smallest1 · chance 0.9

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 8.1 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

11 36 5 25 17 23

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 40 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 15 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 41. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 15 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2018-10-24	21	4th	1 5 14 15 26
2018-10-03	47	2nd	11 15 29 38 39
2018-08-17	5	2nd	12 15 20 34 36
2018-08-12	7	3rd	11 13 15

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 15 is drawn with probability 5/41 tonight whatever it did last week.

2017-12-15	4	1st	15 17 19 26 38
2017-12-11	4	2nd	11 15 20 21 22
2017-12-07	38	2nd	6 15 24 25 27
2017-10-30	22	3rd	2 5 15 18 28
2017-10-07	9	2nd	14 15 19 20 39
2017-09-27	9	1st	15 27 31 33 39
2017-09-18	11	3rd	11 12 15 20 33
2017-09-07	16	2nd	5 15 19 24 40
2017-08-22	6	1st	15 16 25 27 41
2017-08-16	15	2nd	2 15 25 30 33
2017-08-01	21	1st	15 22 23 36 37
2017-07-11	2	2nd	5 15 17 18 36
2017-07-09	3	2nd	14 15 30 33 41
2017-07-06	30	2nd	12 15 21 22 26
2017-06-06	22	3rd	3 5 15 25 34
2017-05-15	4	2nd	11 15 23 26 35
2017-05-11	3	3rd	2 12 15 27 29
2017-05-08	4	3rd	9 14 15 31 32
2017-05-04	7	2nd	13 15 29 33 35
2017-04-27	1	2nd	5 15 23 33 36
2017-04-26	1	2nd	11 15 31 34 38
2017-04-25	21	4th	8 9 11 15 25
2017-04-02	3	4th	1 3 11 15 26
2017-03-30	1	2nd	1 15 26 33 35
2017-03-29	7	2nd	8 15 29 39 40
2017-03-22	7	3rd	6 11 15 21 37
2017-03-15	6	2nd	9 15 25 28 32
2017-03-09	5	2nd	1 15 24 33 39
2017-03-04	9	4th	5 10 11 15 32
2017-02-23	1	2nd	12 15 19 26 34
2017-02-22	6	2nd	9 15 26 27 36
2017-02-16	8	1st	15 17 18 24 41
2017-02-08	4	2nd	13 15 28 29 30
2017-02-04	7	3rd	1 7 15 19 26
2017-01-28	8	2nd	9 15 23 32 38
2017-01-20	7	2nd	2 15 18 19 21
2017-01-13	32	2nd	13 15 17 18 37
2016-12-12	7	2nd	13 15 23 34 41
2016-12-05	2	4th	5 6 13 15 28
2016-12-03	7	2nd	1 15 25 28 38
2016-11-26	13	4th	3 5 10 15 35
2016-11-13	1	3rd	3 14 15 24 29
2016-11-12	6	3rd	9 13 15 27 37
2016-11-06	27	2nd	13 15 17 28 33
2016-10-10	19	2nd	5 15 36 38 39
2016-09-21	1	1st	15 18 29 31 33
2016-09-20	16	2nd	14 15 16 29 35
2016-09-04	8	2nd	4 15 26 29 32
2016-08-27	7	1st	15 16 17 20 38
2016-08-20	12	2nd	9 15 23 33 36
2016-08-08	17	2nd	11 15 20 36 38
2016-07-22	14	5th	1 3 6 12 15
2016-07-08	34	1st	15 22 25 31 41
2016-06-04	4	3rd	3 5 15 31 37
2016-05-31	1	4th	10 11 12 15 23
2016-05-30	11	1st	15 31 34 36 38
2016-05-19	—	3rd	4 11 15 19 23