Number 10

In Texas Two Step under the 4/35 + 1/35 · Jan 2010 – Feb 2022 rules — 1,266 draws, 4 from 1–35 (an earlier era).

133times drawn · chance expected 145 −1.03σ

2draws waiting · a wait this long: 89% for any number

9.5average wait between appearances · chance says 8.8

45longest completed wait · 47% chance of one at least that long

10 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 133 times in 1,266 draws against 144.7 expected, −1.03σ. Each draw is independent: after 2 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 10, draw by draw

Drawn 133 times in 1,266 draws · average wait 9.5 draws · longest completed wait 45 · waiting 2 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 10 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest51 · chance 51.1
2nd smallest49 · chance 60.0
3rd smallest30 · chance 20.0
4th smallest3 · chance 1.9

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 11.7 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

30 8 4 7 13 2

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 34 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 10 is picked about 1.41× as often as an indifferent choice — 5th most popular of 35. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10
Round numbers (multiples of 10) ×1.05

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 10 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2022-02-14	19	2nd	7 10 24 26
2021-12-09	13	3rd	4 7 10 14
2021-10-25	33	2nd	8 10 12 30
2021-07-01	8	1st	10 14 27 30

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 10 is drawn with probability 4/35 tonight whatever it did last week.

2019-10-07	4	1st	10 12 23 32
2019-09-23	6	2nd	2 10 22 34
2019-09-02	8	3rd	5 7 10 18
2019-08-05	1	1st	10 22 25 29
2019-08-01	4	3rd	1 2 10 23
2019-07-18	37	2nd	2 10 24 26
2019-03-11	4	1st	10 13 27 30
2019-02-25	35	2nd	1 10 27 29
2018-10-25	14	2nd	4 10 28 30
2018-09-06	3	3rd	4 6 10 21
2018-08-27	1	3rd	2 6 10 25
2018-08-23	10	3rd	7 8 10 18
2018-07-19	4	1st	10 13 24 28
2018-07-05	1	2nd	6 10 22 28
2018-07-02	13	1st	10 17 29 34
2018-05-17	1	4th	3 7 8 10
2018-05-14	2	1st	10 13 15 17
2018-05-07	9	1st	10 17 20 21
2018-04-05	11	3rd	2 9 10 21
2018-02-22	5	2nd	8 10 15 25
2018-02-05	21	3rd	2 4 10 23
2017-11-23	2	3rd	1 5 10 13
2017-11-16	1	1st	10 12 17 21
2017-11-13	3	2nd	4 10 27 29
2017-11-02	2	3rd	2 7 10 19
2017-10-26	3	3rd	1 3 10 25
2017-10-16	10	1st	10 22 24 35
2017-09-11	6	1st	10 14 24 30
2017-08-21	3	2nd	5 10 26 30
2017-08-10	3	2nd	6 10 19 21
2017-07-31	24	1st	10 15 22 26
2017-05-08	10	2nd	3 10 17 25
2017-04-03	15	2nd	9 10 22 31
2017-02-09	5	2nd	1 10 11 17
2017-01-23	3	2nd	8 10 23 34
2017-01-12	2	2nd	9 10 14 16
2017-01-05	2	1st	10 11 28 31
2016-12-29	1	1st	10 27 29 35
2016-12-26	6	2nd	8 10 13 26
2016-12-05	4	1st	10 17 20 25
2016-11-21	11	1st	10 25 28 34
2016-10-13	1	2nd	2 10 12 17
2016-10-10	28	1st	10 12 13 32
2016-07-04	6	1st	10 18 24 32
2016-06-13	10	3rd	5 9 10 24
2016-05-09	2	2nd	9 10 26 27
2016-05-02	13	3rd	2 9 10 30
2016-03-17	3	3rd	3 8 10 12
2016-03-07	8	1st	10 24 29 34
2016-02-08	15	1st	10 11 23 32
2015-12-17	8	2nd	9 10 19 27
2015-11-19	4	1st	10 17 20 31
2015-11-05	10	1st	10 14 15 23
2015-10-01	9	1st	10 15 21 31
2015-08-31	18	2nd	2 10 27 28
2015-06-29	6	1st	10 16 23 30
2015-06-08	2	1st	10 12 19 29
2015-06-01	2	2nd	1 10 26 29
2015-05-25	17	3rd	1 5 10 35
2015-03-26	1	1st	10 12 15 25
2015-03-23	13	2nd	4 10 21 30
2015-02-05	5	3rd	4 7 10 31
2015-01-19	2	1st	10 11 25 30
2015-01-12	6	3rd	2 6 10 30
2014-12-22	10	1st	10 12 21 32
2014-11-17	38	2nd	1 10 17 28
2014-07-07	2	3rd	4 8 10 29
2014-06-30	15	2nd	9 10 20 28
2014-05-08	4	3rd	1 4 10 29
2014-04-24	7	3rd	4 8 10 15
2014-03-31	10	2nd	7 10 21 32
2014-02-24	2	2nd	6 10 11 33
2014-02-17	12	1st	10 18 20 30
2014-01-06	6	2nd	8 10 14 29
2013-12-16	8	1st	10 13 14 30
2013-11-18	4	4th	1 4 7 10
2013-11-04	3	2nd	3 10 15 18
2013-10-24	8	1st	10 13 15 33
2013-09-26	8	2nd	7 10 12 21
2013-08-29	23	1st	10 11 30 31
2013-06-10	9	2nd	5 10 14 34
2013-05-09	3	2nd	7 10 17 31
2013-04-29	1	1st	10 20 32 33
2013-04-25	9	3rd	2 7 10 24
2013-03-25	11	2nd	7 10 13 19
2013-02-14	9	2nd	6 10 29 34
2013-01-14	7	1st	10 15 17 27
2012-12-20	3	2nd	3 10 15 35
2012-12-10	20	1st	10 13 24 34
2012-10-01	10	2nd	8 10 17 32
2012-08-27	2	2nd	7 10 16 22
2012-08-20	38	1st	10 20 28 32
2012-04-09	9	2nd	5 10 22 23
2012-03-08	45	3rd	5 8 10 15
2011-10-03	7	1st	10 28 30 35
2011-09-08	28	1st	10 26 31 32
2011-06-02	6	3rd	4 9 10 16
2011-05-12	14	3rd	4 9 10 27
2011-03-24	18	1st	10 11 13 18
2011-01-20	15	1st	10 13 14 22
2010-11-29	16	3rd	3 5 10 35
2010-10-04	6	1st	10 11 21 25
2010-09-13	5	1st	10 13 15 25
2010-08-26	7	2nd	9 10 20 30
2010-08-02	20	1st	10 13 30 32
2010-05-24	8	2nd	8 10 12 16
2010-04-26	2	1st	10 17 25 31
2010-04-19	21	1st	10 25 30 35
2010-02-04	—	1st	10 19 28 32