Number 10

In Texas Two Step under the 5/35 · Feb 2022 – Nov 2022 rules — 75 draws, 5 from 1–35 (an earlier era).

10times drawn · chance expected 11 −0.24σ

2draws waiting · a wait this long: 86% for any number

6.9average wait between appearances · chance says 7.0

33longest completed wait · 6% chance of one at least that long

10 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 10 times in 75 draws against 10.7 expected, −0.24σ. Each draw is independent: after 2 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 10, draw by draw

Drawn 10 times in 75 draws · average wait 6.9 draws · longest completed wait 33 · waiting 2 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 10 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest4 · chance 2.7
2nd smallest3 · chance 4.5
3rd smallest2 · chance 2.3
4th smallest1 · chance 0.5
5th smallest0 · chance 0.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.2 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

30 14 1 2 5 7

Never drawn alongside 12 of the other 34 numbers; chance expects about 10 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 10 is picked about 1.41× as often as an indifferent choice — 5th most popular of 35. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10
Round numbers (multiples of 10) ×1.05

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 10 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2022-11-14	3	2nd	5 10 17 22 27
2022-11-03	1	2nd	1 10 14 25 34
2022-10-31	9	3rd	5 8 10 30 30
2022-09-19	4	2nd	7

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 10 is drawn with probability 5/35 tonight whatever it did last week.