Number 15

In Texas Two Step under the 4/35 + 1/35 · Jan 2010 – Feb 2022 rules — 1,266 draws, 4 from 1–35 (an earlier era).

163times drawn · chance expected 145 +1.62σ

7draws waiting · a wait this long: 48% for any number

7.7average wait between appearances · chance says 8.8

46longest completed wait · 50% chance of one at least that long

15 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 163 times in 1,266 draws against 144.7 expected, +1.62σ. Each draw is independent: after 7 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 15, draw by draw

Drawn 163 times in 1,266 draws · average wait 7.7 draws · longest completed wait 46 · waiting 7 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 15 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest27 · chance 31.1
2nd smallest76 · chance 72.5
3rd smallest54 · chance 49.6
4th smallest6 · chance 9.9

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 14.4 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

30 6 13 34 8 5

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 34 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 15 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 35. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 15 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2022-01-27	2	3rd	2 4 15 30
2022-01-20	28	3rd	1 5 15 28
2021-10-14	39	2nd	1 15 26 28
2021-05-31	3	3rd	5 11 15 35

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 15 is drawn with probability 4/35 tonight whatever it did last week.

2019-09-19	29	2nd	14 15 19 26
2019-06-10	8	2nd	8 15 25 32
2019-05-13	4	1st	15 17 31 35
2019-04-29	10	2nd	3 15 17 34
2019-03-25	1	2nd	2 15 16 34
2019-03-21	4	1st	15 21 23 34
2019-03-07	8	2nd	7 15 16 27
2019-02-07	5	2nd	2 15 27 33
2019-01-21	5	2nd	3 15 22 32
2019-01-03	8	2nd	1 15 16 24
2018-12-06	7	2nd	8 15 16 29
2018-11-12	3	1st	15 19 29 33
2018-11-01	3	2nd	12 15 18 21
2018-10-22	23	3rd	12 13 15 24
2018-08-02	3	3rd	1 6 15 23
2018-07-23	7	2nd	12 15 30 34
2018-06-28	9	2nd	5 15 23 31
2018-05-28	4	4th	7 8 9 15
2018-05-14	18	3rd	10 13 15 17
2018-03-08	4	2nd	12 15 21 35
2018-02-22	2	3rd	8 10 15 25
2018-02-15	9	2nd	1 15 25 30
2018-01-15	1	1st	15 19 28 35
2018-01-11	18	2nd	4 15 18 29
2017-11-09	8	1st	15 19 24 26
2017-10-12	3	3rd	8 9 15 26
2017-10-02	1	2nd	13 15 18 31
2017-09-28	7	3rd	4 7 15 23
2017-09-04	10	3rd	8 9 15 23
2017-07-31	10	2nd	10 15 22 26
2017-06-26	4	2nd	6 15 19 25
2017-06-12	1	3rd	7 13 15 34
2017-06-08	11	2nd	12 15 18 26
2017-05-01	6	1st	15 16 29 32
2017-04-10	3	2nd	1 15 29 34
2017-03-30	13	1st	15 16 30 33
2017-02-13	15	4th	5 13 14 15
2016-12-22	28	1st	15 17 20 33
2016-09-15	4	3rd	3 4 15 17
2016-09-01	32	1st	15 19 28 29
2016-05-12	2	2nd	6 15 27 33
2016-05-05	18	2nd	7 15 32 34
2016-03-03	8	3rd	9 14 15 24
2016-02-04	17	3rd	1 6 15 22
2015-12-07	8	2nd	12 15 16 32
2015-11-09	1	2nd	11 15 22 34
2015-11-05	2	3rd	10 14 15 23
2015-10-29	1	3rd	5 11 15 21
2015-10-26	1	1st	15 23 27 34
2015-10-22	2	1st	15 16 19 29
2015-10-15	1	2nd	14 15 18 23
2015-10-12	3	1st	15 16 29 30
2015-10-01	10	2nd	10 15 21 31
2015-08-27	19	2nd	5 15 19 22
2015-06-22	15	3rd	7 13 15 21
2015-04-30	10	2nd	4 15 21 26
2015-03-26	8	3rd	10 12 15 25
2015-02-26	18	2nd	9 15 33 35
2014-12-25	2	1st	15 19 27 33
2014-12-18	6	3rd	11 13 15 24
2014-11-27	7	2nd	5 15 18 24
2014-11-03	2	2nd	12 15 21 27
2014-10-27	33	2nd	9 15 32 34
2014-07-03	20	2nd	2 15 20 22
2014-04-24	3	4th	4 8 10 15
2014-04-14	13	2nd	2 15 21 31
2014-02-27	10	3rd	9 13 15 21
2014-01-23	4	3rd	1 7 15 26
2014-01-09	2	2nd	6 15 25 29
2014-01-02	4	2nd	8 15 19 27
2013-12-19	8	2nd	9 15 20 30
2013-11-21	3	1st	15 31 34 35
2013-11-11	1	3rd	5 9 15 24
2013-11-07	1	2nd	13 15 17 31
2013-11-04	2	3rd	3 10 15 18
2013-10-28	1	3rd	3 6 15 20
2013-10-24	1	3rd	10 13 15 33
2013-10-21	10	2nd	6 15 23 34
2013-09-16	4	3rd	8 12 15 18
2013-09-02	2	1st	15 24 25 33
2013-08-26	5	3rd	3 5 15 20
2013-08-08	1	2nd	4 15 18 20
2013-08-05	9	1st	15 18 24 32
2013-07-04	12	1st	15 23 25 26
2013-05-23	10	2nd	12 15 29 34
2013-04-18	3	1st	15 28 29 30
2013-04-08	16	2nd	5 15 27 28
2013-02-11	2	2nd	6 15 25 26
2013-02-04	2	2nd	13 15 16 26
2013-01-28	4	2nd	6 15 19 29
2013-01-14	6	2nd	10 15 17 27
2012-12-24	1	3rd	6 8 15 27
2012-12-20	9	3rd	3 10 15 35
2012-11-19	5	3rd	2 6 15 28
2012-11-01	1	3rd	5 9 15 34
2012-10-29	4	3rd	4 6 15 22
2012-10-15	3	3rd	3 8 15 20
2012-10-04	3	2nd	6 15 23 25
2012-09-24	3	2nd	8 15 17 29
2012-09-13	8	2nd	6 15 20 31
2012-08-16	3	2nd	5 15 25 30
2012-08-06	4	2nd	5 15 26 35
2012-07-23	6	2nd	9 15 18 23
2012-07-02	1	2nd	3 15 23 27
2012-06-28	11	2nd	2 15 30 35
2012-05-21	1	2nd	11 15 18 30
2012-05-17	1	3rd	7 13 15 17
2012-05-14	3	3rd	9 12 15 25
2012-05-03	3	1st	15 17 26 28
2012-04-23	7	2nd	9 15 18 23
2012-03-29	5	2nd	3 15 19 27
2012-03-12	1	3rd	2 6 15 24
2012-03-08	1	4th	5 8 10 15
2012-03-05	3	2nd	3 15 25 30
2012-02-23	5	1st	15 16 21 32
2012-02-06	16	1st	15 25 26 32
2011-12-12	5	2nd	6 15 26 33
2011-11-24	2	4th	5 8 11 15
2011-11-17	14	1st	15 26 29 32
2011-09-29	2	2nd	8 15 21 34
2011-09-22	14	3rd	6 13 15 27
2011-08-04	9	3rd	8 13 15 30
2011-07-04	4	3rd	7 13 15 16
2011-06-20	4	1st	15 16 30 33
2011-06-06	46	2nd	12 15 25 29
2010-12-27	20	2nd	7 15 27 34
2010-10-18	3	1st	15 16 21 30
2010-10-07	7	2nd	2 15 21 32
2010-09-13	31	3rd	10 13 15 25
2010-05-27	2	3rd	2 3 15 34
2010-05-20	3	3rd	3 8 15 35
2010-05-10	7	3rd	6 12 15 18
2010-04-15	1	3rd	12 14 15 28
2010-04-12	1	3rd	6 13 15 17
2010-04-08	1	1st	15 24 30 32
2010-04-05	1	1st	15 21 24 32
2010-04-01	14	2nd	14 15 30 31
2010-02-11	5	3rd	12 13 15 32
2010-01-25	—	3rd	4 5 15 30