Number 16

In Texas Two Step under the 4/35 + 1/35 · Jan 2010 – Feb 2022 rules — 1,266 draws, 4 from 1–35 (an earlier era).

150times drawn · chance expected 145 +0.47σ

3draws waiting · a wait this long: 78% for any number

8.4average wait between appearances · chance says 8.8

44longest completed wait · 55% chance of one at least that long

16 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 150 times in 1,266 draws against 144.7 expected, +0.47σ. Each draw is independent: after 3 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 16, draw by draw

Drawn 150 times in 1,266 draws · average wait 8.4 draws · longest completed wait 44 · waiting 3 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 16 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest23 · chance 24.3
2nd smallest71 · chance 64.3
3rd smallest47 · chance 50.0
4th smallest9 · chance 11.4

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 13.2 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

20 26 7 4 33 6

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 34 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 16 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 35. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 16 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2022-02-10	5	2nd	13 16 17 21
2022-01-24	4	3rd	4 13 16 32
2022-01-10	1	1st	16 21 22 33
2022-01-06	26	2nd	2 16 24 28

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 16 is drawn with probability 4/35 tonight whatever it did last week.

2020-01-09	12	2nd	10 16 30 34
2019-11-28	44	2nd	6 16 33 35
2019-06-27	1	3rd	4 6 16 17
2019-06-24	2	2nd	4 16 29 33
2019-06-17	8	3rd	3 12 16 19
2019-05-20	9	3rd	1 8 16 17
2019-04-18	2	2nd	4 16 18 32
2019-04-11	3	2nd	7 16 17 23
2019-04-01	2	3rd	6 8 16 25
2019-03-25	5	3rd	2 15 16 34
2019-03-07	4	3rd	7 15 16 27
2019-02-21	10	2nd	11 16 19 30
2019-01-17	4	1st	16 20 26 31
2019-01-03	1	3rd	1 15 16 24
2018-12-31	7	2nd	8 16 19 29
2018-12-06	1	3rd	8 15 16 29
2018-12-03	4	1st	16 20 29 34
2018-11-19	9	2nd	7 16 24 35
2018-10-18	5	3rd	2 6 16 19
2018-10-01	29	2nd	13 16 27 34
2018-06-21	16	1st	16 17 18 30
2018-04-26	10	2nd	11 16 18 34
2018-03-19	5	1st	16 18 27 31
2018-03-01	6	3rd	11 14 16 19
2018-02-08	16	1st	16 22 27 31
2017-12-14	26	2nd	4 16 23 35
2017-09-14	2	2nd	9 16 19 29
2017-09-07	4	2nd	1 16 32 33
2017-08-24	3	2nd	1 16 20 21
2017-08-14	7	2nd	6 16 17 32
2017-07-20	4	1st	16 20 27 28
2017-07-06	11	2nd	6 16 20 34
2017-05-29	8	2nd	5 16 32 34
2017-05-01	3	2nd	15 16 29 32
2017-04-20	6	2nd	14 16 25 34
2017-03-30	4	2nd	15 16 30 33
2017-03-16	1	2nd	4 16 21 22
2017-03-13	6	2nd	3 16 17 35
2017-02-20	11	2nd	6 16 19 33
2017-01-12	21	4th	9 10 14 16
2016-10-31	8	2nd	6 16 25 31
2016-10-03	14	3rd	4 5 16 17
2016-08-15	1	3rd	3 11 16 34
2016-08-11	3	2nd	9 16 24 26
2016-08-01	1	2nd	12 16 21 35
2016-07-28	20	2nd	8 16 20 33
2016-05-19	10	3rd	7 9 16 27
2016-04-14	3	2nd	13 16 20 30
2016-04-04	4	3rd	2 7 16 28
2016-03-21	7	2nd	7 16 17 28
2016-02-25	2	3rd	5 8 16 23
2016-02-18	7	3rd	2 4 16 24
2016-01-25	5	1st	16 20 26 29
2016-01-07	1	2nd	5 16 26 35
2016-01-04	8	2nd	7 16 22 30
2015-12-07	13	3rd	12 15 16 32
2015-10-22	3	2nd	15 16 19 29
2015-10-12	2	2nd	15 16 29 30
2015-10-05	3	1st	16 22 24 28
2015-09-24	9	1st	16 19 20 23
2015-08-24	7	2nd	7 16 25 26
2015-07-30	9	3rd	6 12 16 17
2015-06-29	14	2nd	10 16 23 30
2015-05-11	1	3rd	3 8 16 31
2015-05-07	1	3rd	1 6 16 31
2015-05-04	2	2nd	9 16 20 26
2015-04-27	19	2nd	4 16 28 29
2015-02-19	39	1st	16 23 25 28
2014-10-06	25	3rd	3 9 16 28
2014-07-10	19	2nd	8 16 17 31
2014-05-05	7	4th	2 4 6 16
2014-04-10	7	2nd	13 16 21 31
2014-03-17	11	2nd	11 16 20 32
2014-02-06	3	2nd	3 16 23 30
2014-01-27	14	3rd	1 7 16 17
2013-12-09	4	3rd	1 7 16 26
2013-11-25	3	2nd	8 16 18 23
2013-11-14	8	1st	16 17 23 33
2013-10-17	25	2nd	13 16 21 26
2013-07-22	2	3rd	8 13 16 33
2013-07-15	4	4th	5 6 12 16
2013-07-01	5	3rd	7 12 16 31
2013-06-13	12	2nd	5 16 22 26
2013-05-02	25	2nd	9 16 18 31
2013-02-04	15	3rd	13 15 16 26
2012-12-13	19	2nd	8 16 19 35
2012-10-08	3	3rd	1 4 16 33
2012-09-27	5	1st	16 21 27 35
2012-09-10	4	2nd	5 16 23 25
2012-08-27	4	3rd	7 10 16 22
2012-08-13	9	2nd	11 16 18 22
2012-07-12	2	2nd	14 16 20 26
2012-07-05	37	2nd	9 16 24 32
2012-02-27	1	2nd	11 16 26 34
2012-02-23	1	2nd	15 16 21 32
2012-02-20	9	3rd	3 7 16 33
2012-01-19	5	3rd	1 2 16 31
2012-01-02	17	3rd	4 8 16 27
2011-11-03	4	2nd	12 16 19 25
2011-10-20	15	2nd	2 16 18 26
2011-08-29	14	3rd	4 11 16 35
2011-07-11	2	2nd	5 16 29 30
2011-07-04	4	4th	7 13 15 16
2011-06-20	5	2nd	15 16 30 33
2011-06-02	5	4th	4 9 10 16
2011-05-16	13	3rd	6 14 16 22
2011-03-31	1	4th	3 4 9 16
2011-03-28	3	2nd	4 16 17 33
2011-03-17	4	2nd	5 16 23 29
2011-03-03	4	2nd	13 16 21 22
2011-02-17	33	3rd	12 13 16 18
2010-10-25	1	3rd	2 5 16 30
2010-10-21	1	1st	16 22 30 32
2010-10-18	6	2nd	15 16 21 30
2010-09-27	5	3rd	1 11 16 23
2010-09-09	3	1st	16 22 34 35
2010-08-30	3	2nd	7 16 33 35
2010-08-19	14	3rd	11 14 16 20
2010-07-01	4	2nd	3 16 26 35
2010-06-17	4	1st	16 26 29 34
2010-06-03	3	1st	16 20 22 25
2010-05-24	18	4th	8 10 12 16
2010-03-22	12	2nd	6 16 28 31
2010-02-08	3	1st	16 18 27 31
2010-01-28	4	3rd	7 11 16 29
2010-01-14	—	2nd	2 16 22 26