Number 15

In Texas Two Step under the 5/35 · Feb 2022 – Nov 2022 rules — 75 draws, 5 from 1–35 (an earlier era).

17times drawn · chance expected 11 +2.07σ

1draws waiting · a wait this long: >99% for any number

4.5average wait between appearances · chance says 7.0

16longest completed wait · 81% chance of one at least that long

15 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 17 times in 75 draws against 10.7 expected, +2.07σ. Each draw is independent: after 1 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 15, draw by draw

Drawn 17 times in 75 draws · average wait 4.5 draws · longest completed wait 16 · waiting 1 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 15 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest3 · chance 1.8
2nd smallest8 · chance 5.9
3rd smallest5 · chance 6.3
4th smallest1 · chance 2.7
5th smallest0 · chance 0.4

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 2.0 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

28 18 22 26 35 4

Never drawn alongside 3 of the other 34 numbers; chance expects about 5 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 15 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 35. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 15 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2022-11-17	16	3rd	4 9 15 16 18
2022-09-12	4	2nd	6 15 21 28 34
2022-08-29	9	1st	15 17 28 31 34
2022-07-28	4	2nd	4

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 15 is drawn with probability 5/35 tonight whatever it did last week.