Number 16

In Texas Two Step under the 5/35 · Feb 2022 – Nov 2022 rules — 75 draws, 5 from 1–35 (an earlier era).

12times drawn · chance expected 11 +0.42σ

1draws waiting · a wait this long: >99% for any number

5.0average wait between appearances · chance says 7.0

24longest completed wait · 28% chance of one at least that long

16 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 12 times in 75 draws against 10.7 expected, +0.42σ. Each draw is independent: after 1 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 16, draw by draw

Drawn 12 times in 75 draws · average wait 5.0 draws · longest completed wait 24 · waiting 1 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 16 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest1 · chance 1.0
2nd smallest3 · chance 3.8
3rd smallest4 · chance 4.6
4th smallest4 · chance 2.2
5th smallest0 · chance 0.4

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.4 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

22 11 4 6 18 26

Never drawn alongside 11 of the other 34 numbers; chance expects about 8 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 16 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 35. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 16 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2022-11-17	6	4th	4 9 15 16 18
2022-10-27	3	3rd	5 11 16 18 35
2022-10-17	0	4th	4 8 11 16
2022-10-17	8	4th	4 8

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 16 is drawn with probability 5/35 tonight whatever it did last week.