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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In Texas Two Step under the 5/35 · Feb 2022 – Nov 2022 rules — 75 draws, 5 from 1–35 (an earlier era).
Drawn 6 times in 75 draws against 10.7 expected, −1.56σ. Each draw is independent: after 39 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 6 times in 75 draws · average wait 4.4 draws · longest completed wait 10 · waiting 39 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 32 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.7 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 19 of the other 34 numbers; chance expects about 17 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 32 is picked about 0.86× as often as an indifferent choice — 32nd most popular of 35. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 32 →
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-06-27 | 7 | 5th | 519233132 |
| 2022-06-02 | 3 | 5th | 2391232 |
| 2022-05-23 | 2 | 5th | 1219303032 |
| 2022-05-16 | 10 | 5th | 4 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 32 is drawn with probability 5/35 tonight whatever it did last week.
| 2022-04-11 | 0 | 3rd | 11153233 |
| 2022-04-11 | — | 3rd | 11153233 |