Number 22

In Texas Two Step under the 5/35 · Feb 2022 – Nov 2022 rules — 75 draws, 5 from 1–35 (an earlier era).

17times drawn · chance expected 11 +2.07σ

2draws waiting · a wait this long: 86% for any number

4.4average wait between appearances · chance says 7.0

18longest completed wait · 70% chance of one at least that long

22 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 17 times in 75 draws against 10.7 expected, +2.07σ. Each draw is independent: after 2 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 22, draw by draw

Drawn 17 times in 75 draws · average wait 4.4 draws · longest completed wait 18 · waiting 2 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 22 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest0 · chance 0.3
2nd smallest1 · chance 2.2
3rd smallest7 · chance 6.0
4th smallest8 · chance 6.3
5th smallest1 · chance 2.2

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 2.0 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

6 16 17 15 26 1

Never drawn alongside 3 of the other 34 numbers; chance expects about 5 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 22 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 35. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 22 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2022-11-14	18	4th	5 10 17 22 27
2022-09-01	2	4th	17 20 21 22 34
2022-08-25	7	3rd	6 16 22 24 26
2022-08-01	0	4th	3

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 22 is drawn with probability 5/35 tonight whatever it did last week.