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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In Texas Two Step under the 5/35 · Feb 2022 – Nov 2022 rules — 75 draws, 5 from 1–35 (an earlier era).
Drawn 11 times in 75 draws against 10.7 expected, +0.09σ. Each draw is independent: after 3 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 11 times in 75 draws · average wait 6.8 draws · longest completed wait 21 · waiting 3 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 31 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.3 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 13 of the other 34 numbers; chance expects about 9 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 31 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 35. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 31 →
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-10 | 8 | 4th | 23233134 |
| 2022-10-13 | 3 | 5th | 519262931 |
| 2022-10-03 | 7 | 4th | 1117283135 |
| 2022-08-29 | 11 | 4th | 15 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 31 is drawn with probability 5/35 tonight whatever it did last week.
| 2022-07-21 | 7 | 5th | 38132831 |
| 2022-06-27 | 21 | 4th | 519233132 |
| 2022-04-14 | 5 | 5th | 1014262931 |
| 2022-03-28 | 5 | 4th | 78233133 |
| 2022-03-10 | 0 | 4th | 12172831 |
| 2022-03-10 | 1 | 4th | 12172831 |
| 2022-03-07 | — | 4th | 813173133 |