Number 30

In Texas Two Step under the 5/35 · Feb 2022 – Nov 2022 rules — 75 draws, 5 from 1–35 (an earlier era).

13times drawn · chance expected 11 +0.75σ

0draws waiting — it came up last time

6.2average wait between appearances · chance says 7.0

14longest completed wait · 82% chance of one at least that long

30 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 13 times in 75 draws against 10.7 expected, +0.75σ. Each draw is independent: after 0 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 30, draw by draw

Drawn 13 times in 75 draws · average wait 6.2 draws · longest completed wait 14 · drawn in the most recent draw

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 30 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest0 · chance 0.0
2nd smallest0 · chance 0.1
3rd smallest2 · chance 1.1
4th smallest2 · chance 5.1
5th smallest9 · chance 6.7

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.5 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

10 5 24 1 8 9

Never drawn alongside 9 of the other 34 numbers; chance expects about 7 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 30 is picked about 1.28× as often as an indifferent choice — 13th most popular of 35. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Round numbers (multiples of 10) ×1.05

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 30 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2022-11-21	4	5th	11 17 18 21 30
2022-11-07	2	5th	4 9 11 13 30
2022-10-31	0	4th	5 8 10 30
2022-10-31	3	4th	5 8

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 30 is drawn with probability 5/35 tonight whatever it did last week.