Number 12

In Texas Two Step under the 5/35 · Feb 2022 – Nov 2022 rules — 75 draws, 5 from 1–35 (an earlier era).

10times drawn · chance expected 11 −0.24σ

13draws waiting · a wait this long: 16% for any number

6.3average wait between appearances · chance says 7.0

22longest completed wait · 30% chance of one at least that long

12 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 10 times in 75 draws against 10.7 expected, −0.24σ. Each draw is independent: after 13 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 12, draw by draw

Drawn 10 times in 75 draws · average wait 6.3 draws · longest completed wait 22 · waiting 13 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 12 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest5 · chance 1.9
2nd smallest3 · chance 4.2
3rd smallest1 · chance 3.0
4th smallest1 · chance 0.8
5th smallest0 · chance 0.1

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.2 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

5 28 35 3 18 19

Never drawn alongside 9 of the other 34 numbers; chance expects about 10 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 12 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 35. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 12 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2022-10-06	3	1st	12 18 19 24 24
2022-09-15	8	3rd	3 5 12 23 28
2022-08-18	22	1st	12 20 26 27 35
2022-06-02	2	4th	2

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 12 is drawn with probability 5/35 tonight whatever it did last week.