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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In Texas Two Step under the 5/35 · Feb 2022 – Nov 2022 rules — 75 draws, 5 from 1–35 (an earlier era).
Drawn 8 times in 75 draws against 10.7 expected, −0.90σ. Each draw is independent: after 3 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 8 times in 75 draws · average wait 9.4 draws · longest completed wait 23 · waiting 3 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 3 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.9 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 10 of the other 34 numbers; chance expects about 13 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 3 is picked about 1.48× as often as an indifferent choice — 2nd most popular of 35. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-10 | 13 | 2nd | 23233134 |
| 2022-09-15 | 13 | 1st | 35122328 |
| 2022-08-01 | 3 | 1st | 36162222 |
| 2022-07-21 | 3 | 1st | 3 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 3 is drawn with probability 5/35 tonight whatever it did last week.
| 2022-07-11 | 8 | 1st | 34183435 |
| 2022-06-13 | 3 | 2nd | 1371423 |
| 2022-06-02 | 23 | 2nd | 2391232 |
| 2022-03-14 | — | 1st | 311152633 |