Number 11

In Texas Two Step under the 5/35 · Feb 2022 – Nov 2022 rules — 75 draws, 5 from 1–35 (an earlier era).

12times drawn · chance expected 11 +0.42σ

0draws waiting — it came up last time

6.3average wait between appearances · chance says 7.0

25longest completed wait · 24% chance of one at least that long

11 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 12 times in 75 draws against 10.7 expected, +0.42σ. Each draw is independent: after 0 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 11, draw by draw

Drawn 12 times in 75 draws · average wait 6.3 draws · longest completed wait 25 · drawn in the most recent draw

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 11 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest4 · chance 2.7
2nd smallest4 · chance 5.2
3rd smallest3 · chance 3.2
4th smallest1 · chance 0.7
5th smallest0 · chance 0.1

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.4 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

17 16 33 4 8 35

Never drawn alongside 9 of the other 34 numbers; chance expects about 8 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 11 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 35. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 11 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2022-11-21	4	1st	11 17 18 21 30
2022-11-07	3	3rd	4 9 11 13 30
2022-10-27	1	2nd	5 11 16 18 35
2022-10-24	2	2nd	8

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 11 is drawn with probability 5/35 tonight whatever it did last week.