In EuroMillions under the 5/50 + 2/11 · May 2011 – Sep 2016 rules — 562 draws, 5 from 1–50 (an earlier era).
58times drawn · chance expected 56 +0.25σ
6draws waiting · a wait this long: 59% for any number
9.6average wait between appearances · chance says 10.0
33longest completed wait · 86% chance of one at least that long
40 is drawn as often as chance explains
Drawn 58 times in 562 draws against 56.2 expected, +0.25σ. Each draw is independent: after 6 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
40
Number 40, draw by draw
Drawn 58 times in 562 draws · average wait 9.6 draws · longest completed wait 33 · waiting 6 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Where it lands in a sorted draw
Sort a draw and 40 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
It has shared a draw with every one of the other 49 numbers; chance expected about 0.4 still unmet by now. Every pair →
How many people play it
Under the crowd model, 40 is picked about 0.90× as often as an indifferent choice — 32nd most popular of 50. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 40 is drawn with probability 5/50 tonight whatever it did last week.