Number 21

In Texas Two Step under the 5/35 · Feb 2022 – Nov 2022 rules — 75 draws, 5 from 1–35 (an earlier era).

5times drawn · chance expected 11 −1.89σ

0draws waiting — it came up last time

13.0average wait between appearances · chance says 7.0

30longest completed wait · 4% chance of one at least that long

21 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 5 times in 75 draws against 10.7 expected, −1.89σ. Each draw is independent: after 0 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 21, draw by draw

Drawn 5 times in 75 draws · average wait 13.0 draws · longest completed wait 30 · drawn in the most recent draw

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 21 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest0 · chance 0.1
2nd smallest0 · chance 0.8
3rd smallest3 · chance 1.9
4th smallest2 · chance 1.7
5th smallest0 · chance 0.5

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 0.6 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

17 22 34 1 6 7

Never drawn alongside 17 of the other 34 numbers; chance expects about 19 such strangers by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 21 is picked about 1.22× as often as an indifferent choice — 15th most popular of 35. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 21 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2022-11-21	17	4th	11 17 18 21 30
2022-09-12	3	3rd	6 15 21 28 34
2022-09-01	30	3rd	17 20 21 22 34
2022-05-19	2	3rd	1

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 21 is drawn with probability 5/35 tonight whatever it did last week.