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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In Texas Two Step under the 5/35 · Feb 2022 – Nov 2022 rules — 75 draws, 5 from 1–35 (an earlier era).
Drawn 9 times in 75 draws against 10.7 expected, −0.57σ. Each draw is independent: after 15 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 9 times in 75 draws · average wait 6.5 draws · longest completed wait 11 · waiting 15 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 7 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.1 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 11 of the other 34 numbers; chance expects about 12 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 7 is picked about 1.54× as often as an indifferent choice — 1st most popular of 35. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 7 is drawn with probability 5/35 tonight whatever it did last week.