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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In Texas Two Step under the 5/35 · Feb 2022 – Nov 2022 rules — 75 draws, 5 from 1–35 (an earlier era).
Drawn 13 times in 75 draws against 10.7 expected, +0.75σ. Each draw is independent: after 3 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 13 times in 75 draws · average wait 5.3 draws · longest completed wait 12 · waiting 3 draws now
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 34 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 1.5 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
Never drawn alongside 5 of the other 34 numbers; chance expects about 7 such strangers by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 34 is picked about 0.86× as often as an indifferent choice — 32nd most popular of 35. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
The model and its sources → · What people believe about 34 →
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-10 | 2 | 5th | 23233134 |
| 2022-11-03 | 12 | 5th | 110142534 |
| 2022-09-12 | 1 | 5th | 615212834 |
| 2022-09-08 | 2 | 5th | 5 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 34 is drawn with probability 5/35 tonight whatever it did last week.
| 2022-09-01 | 1 | 5th | 1720212234 |
| 2022-08-29 | 7 | 5th | 1517283134 |
| 2022-08-04 | 5 | 5th | 716182634 |
| 2022-07-18 | 2 | 5th | 1592734 |
| 2022-07-11 | 6 | 4th | 34183435 |
| 2022-06-20 | 7 | 4th | 1518293435 |
| 2022-05-26 | 9 | 4th | 512183435 |
| 2022-04-25 | 10 | 5th | 914223334 |
| 2022-03-21 | — | 5th | 722242634 |